Every year the Sox Machine website posts a template for what is known as the “Off-season Plan Project,” where anyone can give their thoughts on what they would like the White Sox to do in the offseason, in terms of whether to tender or non-tender eligible players, sign or not sign pending free agents, propose trades and things like that. Basically, playing general manager.

So, here is my Off-season Plan Project for the 2023-24 offseason. Like last year, I’m going to do list not only what I would do in terms of roster construction, but what I think the team will do as well.

PREAMBLE

This is going to be a transition year, from the “window of contention” White Sox to the “let’s try this again” White Sox. The 2024 season will be the bridge between them. I expect another 100 loss season and the firing of manager Pedro Grifol and his staff following the 2024 season.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

Dylan Cease: $8.8M (tender, I think the Sox will tender)
Andrew Vaughn: $3.7M (tender, I think the Sox will tender)
Michael Kopech: $3.6M (tender, I think the Sox will tender)
Touki Toussaint: $1.7M (tender, I think the Sox will tender)
Trayce Thompson: $1.7M (non-tender, I think the Sox will non-tender)
Garrett Crochet: $900,000 (tender, I think the Sox will tender)
Clint Frazier: $900,000 (non-tender, I think the Sox will non-tender)
Matt Foster: $740,000 (tender, I think the Sox will tender)

Most of these are no-brainers. Cease is the ace of the staff, Vaughn is a former third-overall pick in the MLB Draft and Crochet was also a first-round pick. On the flip side of that, Thompson (a 37 OPS+ in 36 games with the Sox in 2023) and Frazier (a 52 OPS+ in 33 games with the Sox) should have played themselves off any MLB roster going forward and should consider going to Japan or South Korea. I think this will be Kopech’s last chance to amount to something. Toussaint showed enough in 2023 to at least be a depth piece or a spot starter. Foster is coming off injury but will only be making the league minimum and this team needs pitching in the worst way.

CLUB OPTIONS

Tim Anderson: $14M ($1M buyout) (pick up, I would trade if possible, I think the Sox will pick up)

Liam Hendriks: $15M ($15M buyout, paid over 10 years at $1.5M) (buyout, I think the Sox will buyout)

I’ll address TA later but I would definitely pick up the option to begin the offseason. Hendriks is a special case, considering his Tommy John surgery but there’s no reason to spend $15 million this year on a pitcher who won’t be pitching for a team that won’t be contending. Don’t feel bad, he’ll still be getting $1.5 million a year and that’s more than most of us are making.

MUTUAL OPTIONS

Mike Clevinger: $12M ($4 million buyout) (I think he’ll take the buyout)

I wasn’t a fan of Clevinger, and I’m not a fan now. Yes, he was the best pitcher on this team in 2023, that says more about the state of the Sox starting staff than it does about Clevinger. His numbers were good (3.77 ERA, 9 wins, 3.3 WAR, 118 ERA+) and maybe he can get a multi-year deal with a contender to be a fifth starter, which is what he was supposed to be when he signed with the Sox.

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

Yasmani Grandal (Made $18.25M in 2023) (let him walk, I think the Sox let him walk)
Elvis Andrus ($3M) (let him walk, I think the Sox let him walk)
Bryan Shaw ($720,000) (resign him, I think the Sox let him walk)
Jose Urena ($720,000) (let him walk, I think the Sox let him walk)

Grandal will forever be the face of the failed rebuild, a $72 million contract for an OPS+ of 99 and a cumulative WAR of 2.5 over four years. Nothing says “White Sox” more than that. Andrus and Urena were just “the best of the bad options” that were available when they signed. Shaw is a different matter entirely. He was a horse coming out of the bullpen in 2023 and while his ERA was a tad high (4.14) he finished 17 games (including four saves) and struck out 40 and walked 17 in 45.2 innings. This is the same guy who lead the league pitching in 81 games in 2021 with the Guardians. I’d absolutely bring him back, with a nice raise, say $900,000. He earned it.

FREE AGENTS

No. 1: Gary Sanchez, Catcher (two years, $16 million). This guy can do everything Grandal was supposed to do, but, you know, actually DO IT. He’s only 30 but he’s a veteran of nine years. Last season he hit 19 home runs (compared to eight for Grandal) to go along with a 2.4 WAR. All that while making $1.5 million. This team needs a catcher who has some success doing the job and he’s done it. I don’t care about the .217 batting average, 136 strikeouts. He’s still a major net-positive over what’s on the roster right now. In two years, the Sox can call up Edgar Quero and Sanchez can move on.

No. 2: Lucas Giolito and Jack Flaherty, Pitchers (each at one year, $15 million with an option for 2025). Buying on the cheap, two guys who need to rebuild their value after having lackluster 2023 seasons, reuniting with Sox pitching coach Ethan Katz (as most people know, he was their pitching coach at Harvard-Westlake High School) and that not only fills out two-fifths of the rotation for 2024 but also gives two good trade chips at the 2024 trade deadline. There’s nothing to not like about this option, considering the Sox needs in the rotation and the young pitchers they acquired at the 2023 deadline are nowhere close to ready to compete for a rotation spot.

No. 3: Whit Merrifield, 2B/RF(two years, $15 million). Clearly on the downside of his career but Merrifield hit .272 last season and stole 26 bases for the Blue Jays. He’s already being mentioned as a free agent target by the Sox and would fill a need at either second base or right field. Reuniting with Chris Getz and Pedro Grifol should also make for a nice landing for Merrifield. While he’s certainly not great (0.8 WAR in 2023) he’s better than any of the options currently on the roster at either position he plays. I see him more as a second baseman while the Sox wait to see if Oscar Colas can figure out how to play baseball because he’s not going anywhere soon. Merrifield can also bring some badly-needed leadership to this team of fools. It’s an upgrade from nothing.

Even though Chris Getz is in charge and not Kenny Williams and Rick Hahn, I have a feeling it’s going to be business as usual for the front office. Under the radar signings and hopes for bounce backs, I can see them signing players like Royals pitchers Brad Keller and Zack Greinke, a second baseman like Michael Chavis or Tony Kemp (of the Nationals and A’s, respectively; Kemp can also play the outfield), and a right fielder like Wil Myers (who hit .189 in 37 games for the Reds last season) and hoping they’ll bounce back to what they did five or six years ago. That rarely ever works. But it’s cheap!

TRADES

This is the hardest thing to try to forecast, because no one knows who is available or who could be traded for whom.

No. 1: Trade Eloy Jimenez to the Milwaukee Brewers for 3B/1B Luke Adams. Yes, Adams is not the Brewers’ top prospect (he ranks in the 20’s) but Sox fans always seem to massively overvalue the players and prospects in this organization. Jimenez is nothing special. He had one good fluke season in 2019 and it’s been all downhill since then. This will also free up about $13 million in payroll. Adams isn’t a great hitter (.245 in 371 MiLB at-bats) but he stole 30 bases in 2023 at Class A and had an OPS of .801. He can play first base or third base as well. Eloy would be the first guy out the door if I was trying to fix this mess (I guess I lied, Moncada would be the first guy out the door but there is no way anyone is going to take on that $24 million salary he’ll earn next season). Jimenez is an overrated bum who just doesn’t fit here anymore.

No. 2: Trade Tim Anderson to the Atlanta Braves for P Seth Keller and OF Isaiah Drake. The White Sox make this move after exercising TA’s $14M option for 2024. Some Sox fans may think TA has to be worth at least Ronald Acuna or Spencer Strider (I can literally see Southside Showdown suggesting a trade like that) but the fact is TA was one of the worst hitters and defensive players in the Major Leagues in 2023. That batting title was a long time ago, and so was the 20/20 season. TA had a -2.0 WAR and an OPS+ of 60 in 2023. So I’m looking at a couple of middling prospects with the Braves. Keller is intriguing as he’s known more for his off-speed pitches than his fastball and Drake is a known speedster with a good glove whose bat may take some time to develop. But I think that potential is worth one season of TA and the Braves could get the best of TA (a .300 average, 20+ home runs and stolen bases) when he’s on a team where he’s not expected to lead or be the face of the franchise. And if he can turn the clock back to 2019, he’d be an upgrade over current Braves shortstop Orlando Arcia..

As for what I think the Sox will do in the trade market, I think it will look a lot like previous years where they don’t have the guts to make any moves. They still talk about all the talent on this team, yet I don’t see it. I see a team with a cumulative 83 OPS+. I see a team that had only three offensive players with a WAR over 1.0 (and one of them, Jake Burger, is gone). I see a team that can’t run or hit, or steal bases and is rebuilding the pitching staff. But for whatever reason, people inside the organization think this team is just loaded with talent. The problem is that talent is all on paper.

SUMMARY

This would be my every day lineup: Sanchez (catcher), Vaughn/Gavin Sheets (1B), Merrifield/Lenyn Sosa/Jose Rodriguez (2B), Sosa/Rodriguez (SS), Moncada (3B), Andrew Benintendi (LF), Luis Robert (CF), Colas/Sheets/Merrifield (RF) and Sheets/Vaughn (DH). Zach Remillard would be my top utility player.

The pitching rotation: Cease, Giolito, Flaherty, Toussaint and Kopech.

The bullpen: Gregory Santos (closer), Bryan Shaw, Garrett Crochet, Aaron Bummer, Declan Cronin, Lane Ramsey, Matt Foster and Tanner Banks. I would also keep Kopech as a fifth starter/long reliever and hope he finally learns how to pitch.

I think the White Sox will sign four or five pitchers who no one has ever heard of to minor league deals, they’ll invite all the pitchers they acquired at the trade deadline to Spring Training and just hope they somehow manage to turn into MLB pitchers overnight and talk about all the talent that’s on this team.

So, here is what I see the Sox running out there every day:

Everyday lineup: Korey Lee (catcher), Vaughn (1B), Romy Gonzalez (2B), Anderson (SS), Moncada (3B), Benintendi (LF), Robert (CF), Sheets/Colas (RF) and Jimenez (DH). I do think there’s a chance the Sox will attempt to trade for Salvador Perez, but I think the Royals will overvalue him much like the Sox will overvalue TA in trade talks and nothing will come of it. I also would not be at all surprised if, when he gets absolutely no offers, Yasmani Grandal signs a minor league deal with the Sox and gets an invitation to Spring Training. The fact that they refused to designate him for assignment at any point during the season says they value him more than that big contract he signed in 2019 was worth.

The pitching rotation: Cease, Kopech, Toussaint, Jake Eder, Nick Nastrini.

The bullpen: Gregory Santos (closer), Garrett Crochet, Aaron Bummer, Declan Cronin, Lane Ramsey, Tanner Banks, Deivi Garcia and a dumpster dive free agent or two.

I can see my version of the 2024 White Sox finishing 80-82 if Giolito and Flaherty bounce back and Kopech learns how to pitch. They might even be within eight or 10 games of first place at some point in August. Sanchez and Merrifield could provide some badly needed leadership. I think Cease can bounce back from a lackluster season and maybe Colas will improve.

I see the real 2024 White Sox finishing 62-100, spending the season wondering why all this talent hasn’t evolved yet. Moncada will hit .220 and be hurt most of the year, Vaughn will be the same pedestrian hitter he’s been his entire career (if he hasn’t figured it out after almost 1,500 at bats I don’t know when he will). The pitching will struggle because they felt the need to rush youngsters who weren’t ready to fill out the rotation if they don’t sign the Royals castoffs, if they do the record may be worse.

Things may eventually start to look up once Moncada and the other massive drains on payroll are gone and the Sox could potentially do a legitimate reload in 2025 with all that available cash. I don’t want to pass judgment on the new front office yet, but the one thing that remains the same is Jerry Reinsdorf is the owner and I’m expecting a cut back on the payroll this year, which went from $196M in 2022 to $180M in 2023 and I’m imagining a $150M payroll in 2024. I’m not saying it’s impossible to win with a payroll like that; payroll doesn’t mean anything. The Sox lost over 100 games in 2023 with a massive payroll. There needs to be talent and this team doesn’t have much of that. So, we’ll see where things go from here..

Thank you for taking the time to read. Peace.