Every year the Sox Machine website posts a template for what is known as the “Offseason Plan Project,” where anyone can give their thoughts on what they would like the White Sox to do in the offseason, in terms of whether to tender or non-tender eligible players, sign or not sign pending free agents, propose trades and things like that. Basically, playing general manager.
So, here is my Offseason Plan Project for the 2025-26 offseason. I’m going to list not only what I would do in terms of roster construction, but what I think the team will do as well.
PREAMBLE
This is going to be another low-budget, last-place “let’s see what we have on the roster,” 100-loss season. I think there is some potential MLB talent on the roster, and I think Will Venable is going to be an excellent manager once there is some experience to add to the potential talent. I don’t have an issue with the Sox not spending this offseason to be honest, with the pending lockout on December 1, 2026 looming, and word that it could be bad enough to threaten the entire season, I’d keep my money in my pocket until there’s a new collective bargaining agreement.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Mike Tauchman: Tender, I think the Sox will tender Steven Wilson: Tender, I think the Sox will tender Derek Hill:Tender, I think the Sox will tender
All three are just league-average players that can be mixed and matched, easily replaced with someone of equal value. Tauchman is clearly the best of the bunch, but definitely not a long-term piece of the puzzle. I’d bring them all back just to fill out the roster.
CLUB OPTIONS
Luis Robert, Jr.: $20M Option (pick up, which has already been done. I recently read that one point of WAR is worth around $8 million, which makes Luis Robert worth about $11 million. So trading him now would be a case of selling for pennies on the dollar. I would trade, if possible, during the season if his production catches up to his contract.)
Martin Perez: $10M Option (buyout, and I think the Sox will buyout. That’s entirely too much money to spend on a pitcher who barely saw the mound last season. Plenty of low-risk, low-cost starting pitching on the market.)
FREE AGENTS
This is going to be grim, I don’t believe the Sox are going to be in on any of the top 100 free agents, I think these will be one-year deals to get bodies into camp and just get through the 2026 season.
No. 1:Patrick Corbin, Starting Pitcher (one year, $8 million).This will be the veteran left-handed starter who replaces Martin Perez and possibly gets flipped at the deadline if he’s able to put anything together during 2026. Finished last season with a record of 7-11 with a 4.40 ERA (which is lower than his career ERA, so that’s a step in the right direction). Made 30 starts and pitched over 155 innings in 2025, and there are a lot worse options out there.
No. 2: LaMonte Wade, Jr., First Baseman/Outfielder (one year, $5 million). Regardless of what happens, the Sox can’t put in another year swapping Curtis Meade, Lenyn Sosa and Miguel Vargas at first base every day. I think Vargas will become the regular third baseman, Sosa the everyday second baseman and Meade will likely not be on the team past 2026. So someone has to fill in for the time being. Enter LaMonte Wade, Jr., who as recently as 2023 hit 17 home runs for the Giants. While Josh Naylor is a popular name due to the Sox need and his own impending free agency, the chances of Josh Naylor signing with the White Sox is just about the same as Pete Alonso signing with the White Sox. Wade is coming off what can best be described as a “down” year (.167/.271/.254 slash line with 2 home runs and 18 RBI in 80 games split between the Giants and Angels and a -1.7 WAR), which makes him perfect for a one-year, low-salary flier from the White Sox.
No. 3: Genesis Cabrera, Lucas Sims and Elvin Rodriguez, relief pitchers (one year, $1.5 million each). The White Sox need bullpen arms, and picking from the bottom of the dumpster we get these three candidates, Genesis Cabrera (6.54 ERA while playing for four teams in 2025 with a -0.8 WAR), Lucas Sims (pitched just over 12 innings in 2025 with the Nationals and compiled a 13.86 ERA and -0.9 WAR) and Elvin Rodriguez (between Baltimore and Milwaukee, rolled up a 9.15 ERA and a -0.7 WAR). Yes, these aren’t going to impress anyone but any and all could be flipped at the deadline for a lottery ticket.
TRADES
This is the hardest thing to try to forecast, because no one knows who is available or who could be traded for whom. I do, however, think the Sox may end up trading from their surplus of young pitching to try to fill in some holes in the outfield that may arrive by 2027 or 2028.
Trade SP Jonathan Cannon to the Milwaukee Brewers for CF Garrett Mitchell. Yes, Mitchell isn’t a prospect but he should be entering his “prime” years. Mitchell has a career .254/.333/.433 slash line with a 3.6 WAR in 141 games with the Brewers spread across four seasons. But the Brewers have a glut of outfielders and the Sox have a glut of starting pitchers, especially if Ky Bush and Drew Thorpe are able to successfully return from injury.
I decided against trading either of the Sox young catchers, Edgar Quero or Kyle Teel. I think its way too early in their development for that, and there’s nothing wrong with letting them split catcher and designated hitter in 2026.
I also decided against trying to trade Andrew Benintendi. Not because he’s an irreplaceable member of the lineup, but just do to the lack of potential replacements. Unless the Sox want to bring back Tommy Pham or go through that Michael Conforto nonsense again (even though this time around he’d be a lot more likely to take whatever he can get rather than looking for a $100 million contract), it’s best just to stick with Benny.
LINEUP SUMMARY
This would be my every day lineup: Kyle Teel/Edgar Quero (catcher), LaMonte Wade, Jr. (1B), Lenyn Sosa (2B), Colson Montgomery (SS), Miguel Vargas (3B), Andrew Benintendi (LF), Luis Robert, Jr. (CF), Mike Tauchman (RF) and Kyle Teel/Edgar Quero/Garrett Mitchell (DH). Brooks Baldwin and Chase Meidroth would be my top utility players
The pitching rotation: Shane Smith, Patrick Corbin, Davis Martin, Sean Burke and Yoendrys Gomez.
The bullpen: Genesis Cabrera, Lucas Sims, Elvin Rodriguez, Brandon Eisert, Jordan Leasure, Steven Wilson, Mike Vasil and Grant Taylor (as the closer).
I think the White Sox will sign four or five pitchers who are barely known to minor league deals after they’ve been designated for assignment by their current teams (or they are minor league free agents), and I wouldn’t be even remotely surprised if ol’ Mike Clevinger is back, thinking that somehow he’ll turn back into his 2018-19 form.
FULL SUMMARY
I see the 2026 White Sox finishing 62-100. I think their top two pitching prospects will both debut in 2026 (Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith), but top outfield prospect Braden Montgomery won’t see the Sox clubhouse regularly until 2027, assuming there is a 2027 season.
I sincerely believe the White Sox will not sign an impact, top-level free agent until Jerry Reinsdorf has either passed away or turns the organization over to Justin Ishbia. I don’t think the reason is specifically because Jerry is cheap; I think there’s more to the story. After all, he was willing to spend $250 million on Manny Machado in 2019 and $125 million on Zack Wheeler in 2020, but neither worked out (Machado took more money to sign with the Padres and Wheeler took less money to sign with the Phillies). I think the combined failures just pushed Jerry to never offer a $100 million contract again. I think Jerry was embarrassed that no one wanted his money. Personally, if it were me, I’d offer Pete Alonso whatever he wanted to come to Chicago, he’s a perfect fit at a position of need (first base) and brings power no one on this team has. But we know that’s not going to happen.
In closing, expect 2026 to be more of the same. Another season of 100 losses, starting pitchers that can’t go more than three or four innings, a burned out bullpen that wasn’t very good to begin with, not many runs scored (team leader in RBI in 2026 should again be in the 70s) and not much to cheer about. Maybe someday things will begin to look better but right now I’m just eyeing that work stoppage and the break from baseball that will go along with it and one year closer to Justin Ishbia and the new ownership.
Every year the Sox Machine website posts a template for what is known as the “Off-season Plan Project,” where anyone can give their thoughts on what they would like the White Sox to do in the offseason, in terms of whether to tender or non-tender eligible players, sign or not sign pending free agents, propose trades and things like that. Basically, playing general manager.
So, here is my Off-season Plan Project for the 2023-24 offseason. Like last year, I’m going to do list not only what I would do in terms of roster construction, but what I think the team will do as well.
PREAMBLE
This is going to be a transition year, from the “window of contention” White Sox to the “let’s try this again” White Sox. The 2024 season will be the bridge between them. I expect another 100 loss season and the firing of manager Pedro Grifol and his staff following the 2024 season.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Dylan Cease: $8.8M (tender, I think the Sox will tender) Andrew Vaughn: $3.7M (tender, I think the Sox will tender) Michael Kopech: $3.6M (tender, I think the Sox will tender) Touki Toussaint: $1.7M (tender, I think the Sox will tender) Trayce Thompson: $1.7M (non-tender, I think the Sox will non-tender) Garrett Crochet: $900,000 (tender, I think the Sox will tender) Clint Frazier: $900,000 (non-tender, I think the Sox will non-tender) Matt Foster: $740,000 (tender, I think the Sox will tender)
Most of these are no-brainers. Cease is the ace of the staff, Vaughn is a former third-overall pick in the MLB Draft and Crochet was also a first-round pick. On the flip side of that, Thompson (a 37 OPS+ in 36 games with the Sox in 2023) and Frazier (a 52 OPS+ in 33 games with the Sox) should have played themselves off any MLB roster going forward and should consider going to Japan or South Korea. I think this will be Kopech’s last chance to amount to something. Toussaint showed enough in 2023 to at least be a depth piece or a spot starter. Foster is coming off injury but will only be making the league minimum and this team needs pitching in the worst way.
CLUB OPTIONS
Tim Anderson: $14M ($1M buyout) (pick up, I would trade if possible, I think the Sox will pick up)
Liam Hendriks: $15M ($15M buyout, paid over 10 years at $1.5M) (buyout, I think the Sox will buyout)
I’ll address TA later but I would definitely pick up the option to begin the offseason. Hendriks is a special case, considering his Tommy John surgery but there’s no reason to spend $15 million this year on a pitcher who won’t be pitching for a team that won’t be contending. Don’t feel bad, he’ll still be getting $1.5 million a year and that’s more than most of us are making.
MUTUAL OPTIONS
Mike Clevinger: $12M ($4 million buyout) (I think he’ll take the buyout)
I wasn’t a fan of Clevinger, and I’m not a fan now. Yes, he was the best pitcher on this team in 2023, that says more about the state of the Sox starting staff than it does about Clevinger. His numbers were good (3.77 ERA, 9 wins, 3.3 WAR, 118 ERA+) and maybe he can get a multi-year deal with a contender to be a fifth starter, which is what he was supposed to be when he signed with the Sox.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Yasmani Grandal (Made $18.25M in 2023) (let him walk, I think the Sox let him walk) Elvis Andrus ($3M) (let him walk, I think the Sox let him walk) Bryan Shaw ($720,000) (resign him, I think the Sox let him walk) Jose Urena ($720,000) (let him walk, I think the Sox let him walk)
Grandal will forever be the face of the failed rebuild, a $72 million contract for an OPS+ of 99 and a cumulative WAR of 2.5 over four years. Nothing says “White Sox” more than that. Andrus and Urena were just “the best of the bad options” that were available when they signed. Shaw is a different matter entirely. He was a horse coming out of the bullpen in 2023 and while his ERA was a tad high (4.14) he finished 17 games (including four saves) and struck out 40 and walked 17 in 45.2 innings. This is the same guy who lead the league pitching in 81 games in 2021 with the Guardians. I’d absolutely bring him back, with a nice raise, say $900,000. He earned it.
FREE AGENTS
No. 1:Gary Sanchez, Catcher (two years, $16 million). This guy can do everything Grandal was supposed to do, but, you know, actually DO IT. He’s only 30 but he’s a veteran of nine years. Last season he hit 19 home runs (compared to eight for Grandal) to go along with a 2.4 WAR. All that while making $1.5 million. This team needs a catcher who has some success doing the job and he’s done it. I don’t care about the .217 batting average, 136 strikeouts. He’s still a major net-positive over what’s on the roster right now. In two years, the Sox can call up Edgar Quero and Sanchez can move on.
No. 2: Lucas Giolito and Jack Flaherty, Pitchers (each at one year, $15 million with an option for 2025). Buying on the cheap, two guys who need to rebuild their value after having lackluster 2023 seasons, reuniting with Sox pitching coach Ethan Katz (as most people know, he was their pitching coach at Harvard-Westlake High School) and that not only fills out two-fifths of the rotation for 2024 but also gives two good trade chips at the 2024 trade deadline. There’s nothing to not like about this option, considering the Sox needs in the rotation and the young pitchers they acquired at the 2023 deadline are nowhere close to ready to compete for a rotation spot.
No. 3: Whit Merrifield, 2B/RF(two years, $15 million). Clearly on the downside of his career but Merrifield hit .272 last season and stole 26 bases for the Blue Jays. He’s already being mentioned as a free agent target by the Sox and would fill a need at either second base or right field. Reuniting with Chris Getz and Pedro Grifol should also make for a nice landing for Merrifield. While he’s certainly not great (0.8 WAR in 2023) he’s better than any of the options currently on the roster at either position he plays. I see him more as a second baseman while the Sox wait to see if Oscar Colas can figure out how to play baseball because he’s not going anywhere soon. Merrifield can also bring some badly-needed leadership to this team of fools. It’s an upgrade from nothing.
Even though Chris Getz is in charge and not Kenny Williams and Rick Hahn, I have a feeling it’s going to be business as usual for the front office. Under the radar signings and hopes for bounce backs, I can see them signing players like Royals pitchers Brad Keller and Zack Greinke, a second baseman like Michael Chavis or Tony Kemp (of the Nationals and A’s, respectively; Kemp can also play the outfield), and a right fielder like Wil Myers (who hit .189 in 37 games for the Reds last season) and hoping they’ll bounce back to what they did five or six years ago. That rarely ever works. But it’s cheap!
TRADES
This is the hardest thing to try to forecast, because no one knows who is available or who could be traded for whom.
No. 1: Trade Eloy Jimenez to the Milwaukee Brewers for 3B/1B Luke Adams. Yes, Adams is not the Brewers’ top prospect (he ranks in the 20’s) but Sox fans always seem to massively overvalue the players and prospects in this organization. Jimenez is nothing special. He had one good fluke season in 2019 and it’s been all downhill since then. This will also free up about $13 million in payroll. Adams isn’t a great hitter (.245 in 371 MiLB at-bats) but he stole 30 bases in 2023 at Class A and had an OPS of .801. He can play first base or third base as well. Eloy would be the first guy out the door if I was trying to fix this mess (I guess I lied, Moncada would be the first guy out the door but there is no way anyone is going to take on that $24 million salary he’ll earn next season). Jimenez is an overrated bum who just doesn’t fit here anymore.
No. 2: Trade Tim Anderson to the Atlanta Braves for P Seth Keller and OF Isaiah Drake. The White Sox make this move after exercising TA’s $14M option for 2024. Some Sox fans may think TA has to be worth at least Ronald Acuna or Spencer Strider (I can literally see Southside Showdown suggesting a trade like that) but the fact is TA was one of the worst hitters and defensive players in the Major Leagues in 2023. That batting title was a long time ago, and so was the 20/20 season. TA had a -2.0 WAR and an OPS+ of 60 in 2023. So I’m looking at a couple of middling prospects with the Braves. Keller is intriguing as he’s known more for his off-speed pitches than his fastball and Drake is a known speedster with a good glove whose bat may take some time to develop. But I think that potential is worth one season of TA and the Braves could get the best of TA (a .300 average, 20+ home runs and stolen bases) when he’s on a team where he’s not expected to lead or be the face of the franchise. And if he can turn the clock back to 2019, he’d be an upgrade over current Braves shortstop Orlando Arcia..
As for what I think the Sox will do in the trade market, I think it will look a lot like previous years where they don’t have the guts to make any moves. They still talk about all the talent on this team, yet I don’t see it. I see a team with a cumulative 83 OPS+. I see a team that had only three offensive players with a WAR over 1.0 (and one of them, Jake Burger, is gone). I see a team that can’t run or hit, or steal bases and is rebuilding the pitching staff. But for whatever reason, people inside the organization think this team is just loaded with talent. The problem is that talent is all on paper.
SUMMARY
This would be my every day lineup: Sanchez (catcher), Vaughn/Gavin Sheets (1B), Merrifield/Lenyn Sosa/Jose Rodriguez (2B), Sosa/Rodriguez (SS), Moncada (3B), Andrew Benintendi (LF), Luis Robert (CF), Colas/Sheets/Merrifield (RF) and Sheets/Vaughn (DH). Zach Remillard would be my top utility player.
The pitching rotation: Cease, Giolito, Flaherty, Toussaint and Kopech.
The bullpen: Gregory Santos (closer), Bryan Shaw, Garrett Crochet, Aaron Bummer, Declan Cronin, Lane Ramsey, Matt Foster and Tanner Banks. I would also keep Kopech as a fifth starter/long reliever and hope he finally learns how to pitch.
I think the White Sox will sign four or five pitchers who no one has ever heard of to minor league deals, they’ll invite all the pitchers they acquired at the trade deadline to Spring Training and just hope they somehow manage to turn into MLB pitchers overnight and talk about all the talent that’s on this team.
So, here is what I see the Sox running out there every day:
Everyday lineup: Korey Lee (catcher), Vaughn (1B), Romy Gonzalez (2B), Anderson (SS), Moncada (3B), Benintendi (LF), Robert (CF), Sheets/Colas (RF) and Jimenez (DH). I do think there’s a chance the Sox will attempt to trade for Salvador Perez, but I think the Royals will overvalue him much like the Sox will overvalue TA in trade talks and nothing will come of it. I also would not be at all surprised if, when he gets absolutely no offers, Yasmani Grandal signs a minor league deal with the Sox and gets an invitation to Spring Training. The fact that they refused to designate him for assignment at any point during the season says they value him more than that big contract he signed in 2019 was worth.
The pitching rotation: Cease, Kopech, Toussaint, Jake Eder, Nick Nastrini.
The bullpen: Gregory Santos (closer), Garrett Crochet, Aaron Bummer, Declan Cronin, Lane Ramsey, Tanner Banks, Deivi Garcia and a dumpster dive free agent or two.
I can see my version of the 2024 White Sox finishing 80-82 if Giolito and Flaherty bounce back and Kopech learns how to pitch. They might even be within eight or 10 games of first place at some point in August. Sanchez and Merrifield could provide some badly needed leadership. I think Cease can bounce back from a lackluster season and maybe Colas will improve.
I see the real 2024 White Sox finishing 62-100, spending the season wondering why all this talent hasn’t evolved yet. Moncada will hit .220 and be hurt most of the year, Vaughn will be the same pedestrian hitter he’s been his entire career (if he hasn’t figured it out after almost 1,500 at bats I don’t know when he will). The pitching will struggle because they felt the need to rush youngsters who weren’t ready to fill out the rotation if they don’t sign the Royals castoffs, if they do the record may be worse.
Things may eventually start to look up once Moncada and the other massive drains on payroll are gone and the Sox could potentially do a legitimate reload in 2025 with all that available cash. I don’t want to pass judgment on the new front office yet, but the one thing that remains the same is Jerry Reinsdorf is the owner and I’m expecting a cut back on the payroll this year, which went from $196M in 2022 to $180M in 2023 and I’m imagining a $150M payroll in 2024. I’m not saying it’s impossible to win with a payroll like that; payroll doesn’t mean anything. The Sox lost over 100 games in 2023 with a massive payroll. There needs to be talent and this team doesn’t have much of that. So, we’ll see where things go from here..
It’s been a long and difficult journey to get to this point, and I’ve taken many side trips along the way. Back in May, I started thinking about what I would do after the baseball season ended, knowing the White Sox had no chance of making the playoffs. I took a number of options into consideration, even starting a few and then bailing out.
So, now I have decided the route I want to take.
I considered following college sports again, specifically UCLA or WVU. I was willing to completely walk away from the White Sox for a couple years while they got their ducks in a row. I figured the break would do me good and I could start attending WVU games again if I started following the Mountaineers. But I did a double take after reading about the hazing situation at Northwestern University, that has also been taking place at a number of high schools throughout the United States. I’m not sure what sodomizing teammates has to do with football, and I have a hard time believing there are that many faggots playing football just for the opportunity to fuck their teammates in the ass, but whatever the reason, I completely lost any interest in anything to do with the sport of football.
Yes, I’m throwing the baby out with the bathwater by lumping all of the football programs together, but I found I couldn’t watch a football game without feeling sick to my stomach. This is not an anti-gay statement, this is me being disgusted at football players, who present themselves as “manly,” literally sexually assaulting their teammates. When did football players go from assaulting their wives/girlfriends (which isn’t any better and I’m not saying that’s what they should be doing) to sticking their dicks, broomsticks and other items up each other’s asses? What kind of moron thought that was a good idea?
Regardless of how it started, the fact is it happened and it’s beyond pathetic.
Next, I really considered going all in with the Chicago Blackhawks and I started a full-on transition. I have nearly as much Blackhawks memorabilia as I do White Sox, and I was ready to start replacing my Sox decor with Blackhawks. But then I took a look at the big picture and I decided I wanted to take one final run at my White Sox franchise on MLB The Show. And that brought me to what I’m going to do this offseason.
Today I downloaded the most recent rosters on MLB The Show 23. I’m going to update them over the course of the winter to be ready for the first Spring Training game. I’m going to listen to the White Sox podcasts every week and watch a couple or three episodes of Chicago Fire/PD/Med and watching my science shows and lectures on YouTube. I still plan to catch a Blackhawks game when its on a channel I can get (I don’t get NHL Network since I traded Dish Network for YouTube TV).
Last year, I was halfway through my roster updates when they magically disappeared, even though I had them saved on my PS5 and in the cloud. Both, gone. This year, I’m saving the rosters on the PS5, the cloud and a USB Drive in hopes of that not happening again.
Some have asked why I don’t just wait for MLB The Show 24 to come out and just go from there, but (1) the game won’t release until Spring Training is almost over and (2) if The Show doesn’t feature year-to-year saves, I’m not going to buy the new edition. I’ve done that for years and haven’t gotten my rosters updated correctly since 2021. I see no reason to continue buying a game that I’m not going to play. So, if this works, I’ll either play MLB The Show 23 next season or, if next year’s edition features year-to-year saves, I will update and move my rosters and Spring Training files to MLB The Show 24.
Either way, this is the final year I’ll be updating the rosters. If it all works out, I won’t need to do a full update next season. If it doesn’t, next offseason will be completely focused on the Blackhawks. I can’t really see a situation at this point where I would ever be able to go back and watch college or NFL football, at this point I’m too disgusted with the whole thing, but I’m not going to make any definitive statements, because every time I do make a definitive statement about something, I end up having to walk it back.
So, I’ll be spending the next four months as White Sox GM on MLB The Show 23 and updating all 30 team rosters and adding free agents as they are signed and making trades as they are made in real time. I’ll post the rosters to the vault when they are finished, in mid-February.
And if anything happens this year to ruin my work, I’ll consider that a clear sign that I need to stop, and I will just walk away from it. But one way or the other, this is the last time I’ll be undertaking this project. I’ve enjoyed it over the past several years but it has to come to an end at some point. This year is the point at which it ends.
I think at this point, it’s safe to say the Chicago White Sox 2017-19 rebuild has not exactly gone to plan. Rick Hahn has gone from the guy other teams wanted to hire in 2012, when he was the assistant general manager to Kenny Williams, to a guy who will likely never work in baseball again once his employment ends with the White Sox, which is a point in time that is unknown to anyone except Rick, I assume.
I was a fan of the concept of the rebuild, trade the mental midget Chris Sale, average left-handed starter Jose Quintana and borderline retard Adam Eaton in exchange for a haul of minor league talent, supplement that with some established superstars and draft well. I guess the organization accomplished one out of three.
Or maybe not.
The return for Sale, Quintana and Eaton has been OK at times (Eloy Jimenez hitting 31 home runs in 2019, Dylan Cease winning 14 games in 2022, Yoan Moncada hitting .315 in 2019) and not OK at other times (Jimenez and Moncada never playing 150 games in a season due to an endless string of injuries, Michael Kopech and Reynaldo Lopez never finding any consistency). Taken on a player-by-player, season-by-season perspective, each player (including this year’s breakout star, Luis Robert, Jr.) no one from this group of late 2010s prospects has had more than one outstanding season.
So the trades didn’t work out as expected. How about the established superstar free agent signings?
Manny Machado made the White Sox the laughingstock of Major League Baseball, helped along by Kenny Williams announcing that Machado could have made $350 million with the Sox but that they could not afford to pay him $300 million. The team didn’t even bother to try to sign Bryce Harper, which would have instantly fixed two nagging problems the team has had for years: Someone to play right field and left-handed power. The “Machado Money” was then blown on contract extensions for Moncada, Jimenez and Robert, along with blowing a wad on lackluster free agents Yasmani Grandal and Dallas Keuchel. No true superstar was ever signed, despite it being a pretty well-known fact that Harper wanted to play for the Sox.
OK, the free agent signings didn’t work out as expected. How about the draft picks?
There are few organizations worse at drafting all time than the White Sox. Other than the freak late 1980s and the early 1990s (when four straight first round picks became stars; Jack McDowell, Robin Ventura, Frank Thomas and Alex Fernandez) this team has drafted what amounts to horse manure basically every other season since the draft was first instituted in 1965, getting an occasional gem (Harold Baines in 1977, Tim Anderson in 2013) but usually settling for less-than-good. That was especially true heading into the rebuild.
Starting in 2015, the White Sox first round draft picks have included Carson Fulmer (2015, no longer with the club), Zack Collins and Zack Burdi (2016, no longer with the club), Jake Burger (2017, holding down third base until Moncada’s contract is back from an injury rehab stint at AAA), Nick Madrigal (2018, no longer with the club), Andrew Vaughn (2019, the next “breakout star” of 2023 who’s hitting around .240 and currently injured but not on the IL for some reason I’ve not figured out) and Garrett Crochet (2020, injured after having Tommy John Surgery in 2022). Seven top draft picks and one is contributing at this moment.
(Some fan boy is going to read this and have an aneurysm because Vaughn is on pace for 85 RBI, but he’s also carrying a 102 OPS+ (which means he’s literally replacement level) and a 0.4 WAR).
Well, the draft hasn’t worked out, either. Which means this entire rebuild has been a complete exercise in futility. And to be honest, this is EVERYONE’S fault who is involved from the ownership to the front office to the players to the trainers. And if I could blame Jason Benetti, believe me, I would.
How Ownership Is At Fault
While I applaud Jerry Reinsdorf for spending nearly $200 million on the payroll in 2022 and over $180 million in payroll in 2023, his decision not to sign a top of the line superstar like Machado or Harper means the Sox rebuild was never completely finished, as Rick Hahn told the press that signing a player like that (not Dallas Keuchel or Yasmani Grandal or Andrew Benintendi) was part of the rebuild as a whole. There’s no superstar on this team. Some fan boy will take exception and say “wHaT aBoUt LuIs RoBeRt Jr?” to which I’ll say “let me see him play 150 games this year and 150 games next year and then we’ll talk. I’ve already been fooled by one-year flashes in the pan by Moncada and Jimenez and Cease. I’m not getting fooled again. Now, the rumor making the rounds is once Lucas Giolito and Yaz and the rest of the expiring contracts are off the books, payroll will be making a similar drop, so reinforcements are definitely NOT on the way.
Also, Jerry is directly at fault for the hiring of Tony La Russa as manager in 2020, which was a ridiculous move that everyone except Jerry knew was going to be a disaster of epic proportions.
How The Front Office Is At Fault
Rick Hahn has been the general manager of the White Sox since October 2012, and has exactly two winning seasons to show for his “work.” While I give Reinsdorf credit for opening his wallet, I have to give Hahn his due as well, he doesn’t know how to spend money. Just in the rebuild era, Hahn has blown $70+ million on an old catcher, a left fielder who has no power to speak of and an extension for a third baseman who, in almost 700 career games, has an OPS+ of 105. Over $40 million spent on Eloy Jimenez (who can hit but can’t stay on the field, the only time he played 100+ games in a season was his rookie year of 2019). Over $50 million spent on Dallas Keuchel (who compiled a 17-16 record with a 4.79 ERA and a 91 ERA+ in 3 years with the Sox before being designated for assignment in 2022).
And while Rick Hahn certainly didn’t want Tony La Russa as the manager, Hahn’s selection has turned out to be even worse.
Pedro Grifol had spent years on the Kansas City Royals staff, but when the Royals wanted to hire a new manager, they went outside the organization. That would have told most people that there was a problem, but not Rick Hahn. Grifol has been completely over-matched and under-prepared, and looks like a complete buffoon when talking to the media, as after a recent sweep at the hands of the Minnesota Twins, Grifol doubled down on multiple questionable decisions and basically announced that he knows what he’s doing and the press is basically being insubordinate if they question his decisions.
You’re 41-60, Pedro. You clearly don’t have the answers about anything.
How The Players Are At Fault
I’ve been watching baseball for well over 30 years and this is the most unlikable team I’ve ever seen. I know a lot of people disliked the Yankees of the late 1990s and early 2000s, but they weren’t an unlikable team, that was mostly professional jealousy over a team that was dominating. The 2022-23 White Sox have been a team that is just full of players I generally dislike. Lazy, unprepared, constantly injured, performing poorly, all while making a LOT of money. The money part is the fault of the front office for handing out contracts to guys who would now be making half or a third (or in Moncada’s case, probably 1/5) of their current salaries.
There’s nothing “fun” about this team. It’s torturous to watch. It’s worse than the mid-1990s Pittsburgh Pirates teams that I used to watch. With them, at least there was something fun to see. Maybe that’s because they were expected to lose and played loose. Something this team should do next year since they’re not going anywhere and have nothing to lose. I certainly hope they will.
Rumors are flying that the Sox are “open for business” at the trade deadline. I see people on different comment sections as well as Facebook and Twitter who can’t wait to see the White Sox pull off six or seven trades. I’m absolutely convinced that’s not going to happen. That would mean a full rebuild. Again. Just based on the players who will be leaving as free agents after the season, Giolito is a definite goner, Lance Lynn and Mike Clevinger have team options that will absolutely be declined, several relievers are free agents, Yaz and Elvis Andrus are free agents as well. Tim Anderson has one team option remaining on his deal.
If the Sox were to trade everyone I’ve heard mentioned as a trade candidate, they would be unable to field a Major League team. And with Reinsdorf expected to cut the payroll, they can’t fill those holes with free agents this offseason. So from what I’ve seen, I would expect Giolito to be traded, maybe Lance Lynn and then this offseason the White Sox can find a pitcher like Brad Keller of the Royals who is down on his luck and may be willing to take a deal looking for a bounce back (not that Keller has ever been that good that he has anything to bounce back to, I’m just saying). In other words, I think the White Sox are going to run this same group back out again in 2024 minus a couple of starters and relievers and Yaz and try to “compete” with this core they bought and are stuck with. Because, honestly, I don’t know what else they CAN do.
I’ve never seen a team that was as hamstrung as this organization is right now.
There’s very little Major League talent to move that would bring a good return. So a rebuild like began in 2016 is out of the question. They’re stuck with guys like Moncada until after next season and Jimenez until 2026. I think Luis Robert will have the same regression every other prospect has had in 2024. You can’t draft your way out of this situation. If the Royals weren’t in the opening stages of a rebuild themselves the Sox would be in last place right now; in fact, they’re as close to the Royals as they are the Twins at this point (13 games ahead of the last-place Royals and 12 games behind the first place Twins).
It’s a sad state of affairs and I’m looking forward to seeing how Hahn and the rest of this clown show handles the situation at the trade deadline. We have eight days to wait…
Every year the Sox Machine blog posts a template for what is known as the “offseason plan project,” where anyone can give their thoughts on what they would like the White Sox to do in the offseason, in terms of whether to tender or non-tender eligible players, sign or not sign pending free agents, propose trades and things like that.
This year I’m going to do this a little differently, I’m going to list not only what I would do in terms of roster construction, but what I think the team will do as well, because there will definitely be a lack of consensus between myself and the Sox front office.
PREAMBLE
This is going to be a difficult season for the White Sox, possibly worse than 2022. The lack of talent, health, depth and camaraderie are going to sink the team for the remainder of the “contention window.” This team was poorly built and too many players were paid before they had actually accomplished anything, thus we have a roster full of overpaid bums who can’t stay healthy and have no reason to try.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Lucas Giolito: $10.8M (tender, I think the Sox will tender)
Dylan Cease: $5.3M (the Sox will tender, I would tender and try to work on an extension)
Reynaldo Lopez: $3.3M (tender, I think the Sox will tender)
Adam Engel: $2.3M (non-tender, I think the Sox will non-tender)
Michael Kopech: $2.2M (tender, I think the Sox will tender)
Kyle Crick: $1.5M (non-tender, I think the Sox will non-tender)
Jose Ruiz: $1M (non-tender, the Sox are in love with him and will tender)
Danny Mendick: $1M (tender, I think the Sox will tender)
CLUB OPTIONS
Tim Anderson: $12.5M ($1M buyout) (pick up, I would trade if possible, I think the Sox will pick up)
Josh Harrison: $5.625M ($1.5M buyout) (buyout, I think the Sox will tender due to lack of options)
PLAYER OPTIONS
AJ Pollock: $13M ($5 million buyout) (No way he leaves $13 million on the table, exercise option)
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Jose Abreu (Made $18M in 2021) (resign, 2 years for $20 million, I think the Sox let him walk)
Johnny Cueto($4.2M) (let him walk, I think the Sox let him walk)
Vince Velasquez ($3M) (let him walk, I think the Sox let him walk)
Elvis Andrus ($14.25M) (let him walk, I think the Sox let him walk)
MANAGER
My pick: Ozzie Guillen. You want a manager with a successful body of work and championship pedigree? Here he is. You want a guy who knows it’s his final chance and wants to right his previous wrongs? Here he is. I don’t want to hear about what happened in 2011, that’s ancient history. This is 2022.
The Sox pick: Mike Shildt. I know this guy has cooled down considerably as a candidate but here is my rationale: Kenny Williams wants Ron Washington. Rick Hahn wants Joe Espada. I think Tony La Russa will have Jerry Reisndorf’s ear and like the last time the White Sox hired a manager, Jerry gets the final say.
FREE AGENTS
No. 1:Jose Abreu (two years, $20 million). You just don’t let the face of the franchise walk away because you have some kid who was a high draft pick waiting to take his spot. Mark my words, Andrew Vaughn will be more Greg Walker than Jose Abreu or Paul Konerko when all is said and done.
No. 2: Willson Contreras (two years, $32 million). I’m not a huge fan of this signing, but something has to be done. Can’t go into another season with Yasmani Grandal at the top of the depth chart. Let Contreras do the bulk of the catching through the remainder of the contention window, and he can still sign another free agent deal after the 2024 season as a 33-year old.
No. 3: Adam Frazier (one year, $7 million). Frazier is coming off his worst season and should be had for a small amount. He set full-season career lows in just about every category (.238/.301/.311 line with an OPS+ of 80 and a 0.7 WAR) but he plays every day (156 games in 2022 with the Mariners) and his defense is certainly passable (6 errors in 435 chances at second base in 2022). It’s an upgrade from nothing.
As for what I think the White Sox will do in free agency, I see a couple of low-end fifth starter candidates on minor league deals (someone like Jordan Lyles or Michael Pineda), a fourth or fifth outfielder to replace Adam Engel (Ben Gamel? Jackie Bradley? Chad Pinder?). Other than that, and maybe a flier on a bullpen arm or two for “depth,” I don’t see the Sox making any free agent signings. The roster is full.
TRADES
This is the hardest thing to try to forecast, because no one knows who is available or who could be traded for whom.
No. 1: Trade Yoan Moncada and Colson Montgomery to the Seattle Mariners for Eugenio Suarez and Jarred Kelenic. Yes, it’s giving up the Sox #1 prospect and not getting a ton in return but it’s not a straight salary dump and Suarez fills in third base for the remainder of the contention window and Kelenic isn’t the superstar prospect he was two years ago. This opens up some salary room for the White Sox and eliminates one of the team’s biggest issues, and if Kelenic can outplay Gavin Sheets in RF, you could have a solid OF lineup for years (Kelenic, Luis Robert and Oscar Colas) after the contention window closes.
No. 2: Trade Leury Garcia and Bryan Ramos to the Oakland A’s for Tony Kemp. The A’s take on a little extra salary (Kemp is expected to make around $3.2 million in arbitration this season while Garcia will make a little over $5 million in the second year of his three-year deal) in order to pick up a decent prospect in Ramos and the Sox get their replacement for Garcia. Seems like a win/win trade to me.
No. 3: Trade Yasmani Grandal to any team that will take him for any price they’ll pay, and agree to pay half of his salary. Straight salary dump, find some team that could use an occasional switch hitter at the DH position and could be a once-a-week or even emergency catcher, for $9 million. Trade him for some team’s 50th ranked prospect. Anything to get him off the payroll and out of the organization.
As for what I think the Sox will do in the trade market, I think they’ll strongly consider trading Gavin Sheets (likely to the Orioles in a nice homecoming) because he is still a man without a position (he’s a 1B/DH and those spots are filled) and I think they could get a minor league pitching prospect in return, maybe a future piece for the back end of the rotation. I don’t think the front office has the balls to really move a Moncada or an Eloy Jimenez or a Lucas Giolito for anything.
SUMMARY
This would be my every day lineup: Contreras (catcher), Abreu (1B), Frazier (2B), Anderson (SS), Suarez (3B), Pollock (LF), Robert (CF), Kelenic (RF) and Jimenez (DH). Kemp would be my top utility player. For those wondering, I’d either trade Andrew Vaughn or just let him play 1B or DH when Abreu or Eloy need a day off. Remember, he’s making the MLB minimum. At best he’s a .280/20/80 hitter, he’s not the second coming of Frank Thomas.
The pitching rotation: Cease, Lance Lynn, Kopech, Giolito and Davis Martin.
The bullpen: Liam Hendriks (closer), Reynaldo Lopez, Kendall Graveman, Joe Kelly, Tanner Banks, Aaron Bummer and Jake Diekman.
I think the White Sox will try to find someone/anyone to be their fifth starter because they have absolutely no faith in their own homegrown pitchers (Cease came from the Cubs, Lynn from the Rangers, Kopech from the Red Sox and Giolito from the Nationals; Banks and Bummer are the only homegrown relievers), and they’ll sign a guy who is looking to rebound (like Johnny Cueto in 2022 or Ervin Santana in 2019, just showing the extremes of how those kinds of deals can work out).
So, here is what I see the Sox running out there every day:
Everyday lineup: Grandal (catcher), Vaughn (1B), Harrison/Leury (2B), Anderson (SS), Moncada (3B), Pollock (LF), Robert (CF), Sheets/Colas (RF) and Jimenez (DH). Leury will be the top utility player but Danny Mendick is going to get a good look after a solid (but short) 2022 season (.289/.343/.443, OPS+ of 121 and 0.5 WAR in only 97 at-bats).
I can see my version of the 2023 White Sox finishing 85-77, thanks to the power provided by Contreras, Suarez and Kelenic to push a few more runs across the plate. The pitching was middle-of-the-pack and I expect Cease and Kopech to get better, so I think “my” 2023 White Sox could finish second to the Guardians (again) but maybe a little closer (five or six games out).
I see the real 2023 White Sox finishing 79-83, spending the season wondering if Vaughn or Moncada or Robert is going to break out, if they can get anything close to a positive WAR out of second base and hoping Colas finally fills the hole in RF that’s basically been there since Jermaine Dye left. This is not a good team, and removing the best player (Abreu lead the team in WAR, games played, hits and batting average, period) isn’t going to make the offense better, and if you believe that, you’re a moron.
Things may eventually start to look up once Grandal and Moncada and Giolito and Hendriks and the other massive drains on payroll are gone and the Sox could potentially do a legitimate reload in 2025 with all that available cash. However, I have absolutely no faith in this front office. Luckily, as Rick Hahn said, they know when they’re not doing the job anymore so once the guy who has had 2 winning seasons out of 10 as a general manager figures out he can’t do the job, it will get better.
To say the 2022 season has been disappointing would be an understatement of epic proportions. This is easily the sorriest season I’ve seen in 31 years of being a Chicago White Sox fan. Supposedly, help is on the way. But I’m very skeptical.
I don’t have any faith in the White Sox, due to the constant mistakes the club has made since the 2016 rebuild began.
One of the biggest mistakes the organization made was hiring Tony La Russa as the team’s manager prior to the 2021 season. La Russa had been retired as a manager since 2011, and it showed in his poor decision making. The Sox were able to overcome those shortcomings with talent in 2021, winning 93 games and the American League Central Division title.
Fast forward one year and the talent just couldn’t carry the team anymore and they’ll likely finish right around .500 in a year they were considered to be a World Series contender.
As of today (October 3, 2022) La Russa is now officially out as manager of the White Sox. While the decision for La Russa to leave was based on some medical issues (one being a pacemaker and the other La Russa refused to elaborate on), everyone agrees that retirement is the best thing for both La Russa and the organization.
Now, that brings us to his potential replacements.
Some ridiculous names have been thrown around (as usual, a number of former Sox players like A.J. Pierzynski, Jim Thome and Paul Konerko, none of whom have any on-field coaching or managing experience). I’m hopeful the White Sox remember the Robin Ventura era and don’t repeat the mistake of hiring a first-time manager with no experience.
A number of bench coaches and base coaches are being considered, including Astros bench coach Joe Espada and Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro, and Indians, er, Guardians first base coach Sandy Alomar, Jr. Former MLB managers Bruce Bochy and Fredi Gonzalez have also been mentioned.
But the name I keep hearing that fits all the boxes this organization likes to check is Chicago Cubs third base coach Willie Harris.
Former White Sox player? Check. Pulling a fast one on the Cubs? Check. Would make less money than any other potential manager? Check.
The White Sox haven’t hired a manager who didn’t have any White Sox connections since Jerry Manuel, who was hired in 1998. In 2004, the Sox hired former Sox shortstop Ozzie Guillen as manager. In 2012, Ozzie’s former teammate Robin Ventura was hired. In 2017, Ventura’s bench coach, Ricky Renteria was hired, followed by La Russa.
No other team in baseball has such a track record. Most teams hire the best available option, the White Sox hire the best available option who has played for or coached for the team at some point in the past.
While Thome, Konerko and Pierzynski are ridiculous to even consider, Harris does have minor league managerial experience and MLB coaching experience.
This is exactly why he’s going to be the White Sox manager of the future.
Harris will be compared to Ozzie Guillen, as Harris was a member of the 2005 White Sox roster (he played for the organization from 2002 through 2005) and is currently serving as an MLB base coach (Guillen was hired after serving as a coach with the Montreal Expos (2001) and Miami Marlins (2002-03).
Most importantly, Harris will likely command the smallest salary among all the options listed, and that will play a very important role to White Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf.
Am I saying Harris would be a poor choice? No, I think he would bring a fresh perspective to the organization and an infusion of youth (Harris is 34 years younger than La Russa). Is he a perfect choice? Absolutely not. A team that is contending should be hiring a manager with managerial experience, not someone who is going to require on the job training.
My first choice? Dave Martinez of the Washington Nationals. Yes, they’re having a horrible season but they’ve also stripped the team down to the bare bones. He has a sub-.500 record but also has a World Series championship, something not a lot of guys can say. And with the Nats in a major rebuild and a sale of the franchise, it seems like the new owner would want to clean house and begin anew. Which would be great for the White Sox.
Martinez also is a former White Sox player so that clicks the important box for the Sox.
A new manager should be in place within the next three weeks, due to the fact that the organization needs to have a staff in place to help sell to potential free agent signings.
So, we’ll wait and see what happens. Right now, I’ll put $100 on Willie Harris as the next White Sox manager. He does seem to be a relatively good fit and I do think there are worse options out there. There are also better options, but I don’t think that’s going to matter.
This is a blog I’ve been thinking of doing for a long time, and something I’ve touched on in previous blog entries stretching back to 2018. This may draw the ire of the Chicago White Sox fan boys, who think this team can do no wrong regardless of what they do, but the fact of the matter is, this rebuild has not gone to plan in spite of the back to back playoff appearances in 2020 and 2021. While the original trades that set off the rebuild were universally praised, I think they need to be revisited, as well as the free agent signings and pursuits that have taken place since the rebuild was instituted following the 2016 season.
I want to take a look at the rebuild in a season-by-season view:
2016
This is where it all began. In December 2016, the White Sox made three moves that would have a profound effect on the organization, two trades and one Rule 5 Draft pick.
– On December 6, the White Sox traded LHP Chris Sale to the Boston Red Sox for IF Yoan Moncada (at the time the #1 prospect in baseball), RHP Michael Kopech, OF Luis Alexander Basabe and RHP Victor Diaz.
– On December 7, the White Sox traded OF Adam Eaton to the Washington Nationals for RHP’s Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning.
– And on December 8, the White Sox selected RHP Dylan Covey in the Rule 5 Draft from the Oakland A’s.
This was also the year the White Sox hired career loser Rick Renteria to be their manager, once again sniffing fumes from the Chicago Cubs, who had hired Renteria four years earlier to handle their rebuild on-field.
2017
Now fully into the rebuild, not much was expected in terms of free agent signings or trades, as the Sox had little left with which to deal (though they still made a major deal before the trade deadline).
– On May 27, the White Sox signed OF Luis Robert as an international free agent from Cuba.
– On July 13, the White Sox traded LHP Jose Quintana to the Chicago Cubs for RHP Dylan Cease, OF Eloy Jimenez, 1B Matt Rose and IF Bryant Flete.
– On July 19, the White Sox traded 3B Todd Frazier, RHP David Robertson and RHP Tommy Kahnle to the New York Yankees for RHP Tyler Clippard, OF Blake Rutherford, OF Tito Polo and LHP Ian Clarkin.
In the first season of the rebuild, the Sox finished the 2017 season with a 67-95 record.
2018
The worst season of the rebuild, by far. The Sox finished with a record of 62-100.
– On November 23, 2017, the White Sox signed OF Daniel Palka off waivers from the Minnesota Twins.
– On December 1, 2017, the White Sox signed C Wellington Castillo to a two-year deal with an option to lock down the catcher position that had been in flux since A.J. Pierzynski was let go.
– On December 22, 2017, the White Sox signed RHP Jose Ruiz off waivers from the San Diego Padres.
The Wellington Castillo deal was one of the first ones to implode on this team, as Castillo was suspended 80 games for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy on May 24, 2018. Unaware of it at the time, this was going to be an omen of things to come, not in terms of drug policy violations but in terms of poor free agent signings and a poor performance in free agency, in general.
2019
This is where the rebuild really started to go south. Prior to the season, the White Sox were considered one of the front runners to sign free agents Manny Machado or Bryce Harper. In fact, some media outlets said there was a chance the White Sox could sign both. Instead, their offseason acquisitions amounted to:
– On December 15, 2018, the White Sox traded minor league OF Alex Call to the Cleveland Indians for 1B/DH Yonder Alonso.
– On December 19, 2018, the White Sox signed C James McCann as a free agent from the Detroit Tigers.
– On January 10, the White Sox signed OF Jon Jay as a free agent from the Arizona Diamondbacks.
– On March 22, the White Sox signed OF Eloy Jimenez to a six-year, $43 million extension.
The Chicago press pointed out that Alonso and Jay were offseason workout buddies of Machado, while the Sox front office did everything they could to downplay the connection publicly.
While the Chicago media circled the wagons around the franchise, the rest of the country was laughing at the White Sox over the attempt to sign Machado. After announcing they had made an eight-year, $250 million offer, and Machado had signed a 10-year, $300 million offer, White Sox team president Kenny Williams was left to try to justify that the offer could have reached 10 years and $350 million if all options were exercised and all criteria were met in on-field performance. In the same breath, he said the White Sox just couldn’t afford to go to $300 million guaranteed. I feel like this was lost on most people, saying “we can’t afford to pay you $300 million, but we can afford to pay you $350 million.” The White Sox were the laughingstock of baseball outside of the city of Chicago (and were publicly laughed at during Machado’s press conference announcing his signing with the Padres) and the Sox finished the season with a 72-89 record, a 10-game improvement from hitting rock bottom the previous year with a 100-loss season.
2020
The window of contention begins to open. And the White Sox struck hard and fast.
– On November 21, 2019, the White Sox signed C Yasmani Grandal to the largest contract in team history, four years and $73 million.
– On December 10, 2019, in an attempt to shore up right field for the contention window, they traded OF Steele Walker to the Texas Rangers for OF Nomar Mazara.
– On December 30, 2019, in an attempt to shore up the rotation, they signed free agent LHP Dallas Keuchel.
– On January 2, the White Sox signed minor league OF Luis Robert to a six-year contract worth $50 million with options that could push the deal to $88 million.
– On January 9, the White Sox signed Edwin Encarnacion as a free agent to plug a hole at DH.
The White Sox were rumored for months to be in the market for RHP Zack Wheeler, who signed with the Phillies for less money than the White Sox offered (no monetary information was ever released but the significant facts were never disputed by the White Sox or Wheeler) and for the second straight offseason the Sox were left with egg on their faces, and as I’ll address later, I think this was the end of the big market free agent pursuits by the White Sox. Whether they were scared or just figured it wasn’t worth it, I don’t know.
In the season shortened to 60 games due to COVID-19, the White Sox finished with a 35-25 record.
2021
The White Sox entered 2021 as legitimate World Series contenders, according to the press. They fortified the roster with the following moves:
– On October 29, 2020, the White Sox hired Tony La Russa as manager, replacing Renteria.
– On December 7, 2020, the White Sox traded Dane Dunning to the Texas Rangers for Lance Lynn.
– On December 10, 2020, after failing to acquire Joc Pederson for the third consecutive offseason and releasing Nomar Mazara after he fell flat on his face as the everyday right fielder, the White Sox signed Adam Eaton as a free agent from the Washington Nationals.
And while I can’t find the exact date, at some point during this period, the White Sox signed 3B Yoan Moncada to a five-year, $70 million extension.
– On January 15, the White Sox had a big day. They signed Liam Hendriks and signed international free agents Yoelqui Cespedes and Norge Vera.
The White Sox let C James McCann go, and he signed a $40 million deal with the New York Mets, a little more than half what Yasmani Grandal would make in the same four years.
The Chicago media was all in, thinking the White Sox would acquire everyone from Trevor Bauer to Michael Brantley to George Springer to Kris Bryant. The Chicago fan boys were picturing a $400 million payroll. What the White Sox got was a 93-69 record, an AL Central Division title, and a first-round loss in the playoffs.
2022
Again, the idea that the White Sox were going to break the bank hung over the team as free agency started in November, 2021. Such arrogant statements as “we’re going to sign Marcus Semien but in case we don’t, Eduardo Escobar is our backup plan.” (Escobar signed with the New York Mets before Semien signed with the Texas Rangers and the White Sox were clearly never in on either of them). Another embarrassing situation revolved around OF Michael Conforto, whose name was bandied about for months until it was revealed he wouldn’t be playing in 2022 due to shoulder surgery. (Prior to this announcement, a White Sox “news” site had posted a column saying that the Sox had a massive offer on the table for Conforto, but because he wasn’t vaccinated the team wouldn’t sign the deal. Every bit of that was subsequently proven to be completely fabricated in someone’s brain).
The 2022 MLB lockout lasted from December to March, and the White Sox made two moves prior to the beginning of the lockout (during which MLB transactions were not allowed):
– On November 30, 2021, the White Sox signed RHP Kendall Graveman as a free agent.
– On December 1, 2021, the White Sox resigned IF/OF Leury Garcia.
Following the lockout, and with most of the top-flight talent off the board, the White Sox made the following transactions:
– On March 14, the White Sox signed RHP Joe Kelly as a free agent.
– On March 15, the White Sox signed IF Josh Harrison as a free agent.
– On April 1, the White Sox traded RHP Craig Kimbrel to the Los Angeles Dodgers for OF A.J. Pollock.
– On April 3, the White Sox traded C Zack Collins to the Toronto Blue Jays for C Reese McGuire.
– On April 5, the White Sox signed RHP Johnny Cueto as a free agent.
At the trade deadline, the White Sox sent McGuire to the Boston Red Sox for LHP Jake Diekman.
Not mentioned in the transactions (as I made those strictly important acquisitions) was LHP Dallas Keuchel was designated for assignment on May 28.
Now, I went through all of those transactions so we can look on a case-by-case basis how the rebuilt roster looks and how the players who were acquired for and during the rebuild have fared. I’m going to list the most relevant statistics to each player listed above in bold and these numbers are the stats the player accumulated as a member of the White Sox ONLY. And I’ll start at the beginning:
Yoan Moncada: In six seasons with the White Sox, Moncada has compiled a 13.2 WAR and a .254/.337/.425 stat line. His 2019 season is an outlier, with a 5.2 WAR and .315/.367/.548 line and 25 home runs. A consistent stolen base threat in the minor leagues, he’s stolen 3 bases in 5 attempts since the beginning of the 2020 season.
Michael Kopech: Kopech missed the 2019 season with Tommy John surgery and the 2020 season with “personal problems” as best as I can describe them. He seems to finally be putting it together in 2022, but has compiled a 9-12 career record and a 4.1 WAR (four of those victories and 2.6 WAR coming in 2022). Hopefully his best years are ahead of him because he seems to really be perfecting his craft.
Lucas Giolito: This was the guy I thought would be the centerpiece of the rebuild. Like Moncada, he’s had one very good season and a lot of average-to-below-average seasons around that. In 2019, Gio made the All Star team and finished with 14 wins, a 3.41 ERA, a 134 ERA+ and a 5.5 WAR, all career highs. His 2022 season has been poor, with eight wins, a 4.91 ERA, an 81 ERA+ and a 0.1 WAR.
Reynaldo Lopez: Like Kopech, Lopez has really hit his stride this season, but not as a starter, as a high-leverage reliever. A failed starter (in 2019, Lopez compiled a 10-15 record with a 5.38 ERA in 33 starts, with an 85 ERA+ and 0.3 WAR). In 2022, after corrective eye surgery and a move to the bullpen, Lopez is 5-2 with a 2.84 ERA, 141 ERA+ and 1.0 WAR.
Dylan Covey: My choice for the worst player acquisition during the rebuild (and everyone knows my feelings about Adam Eaton). In three seasons with the White Sox, Dylan Covey compiled a 6-29 record, a 6.54 ERA, a 66 ERA+ and a -3.0 WAR. I don’t know who saw what in this guy, he is literally one of the worst pitchers I have ever seen in 30+ years of watching baseball. Absolutely pathetic. Thankfully he was let go in 2019.
Luis Robert: This is a guy that I can honestly say, the numbers don’t tell the story. Robert has a career .297/.342/.488 line with an OPS+ of 128 and an 8.0 WAR in three seasons. The problem is, he’s played in 206 of 335 games (as of the time of this writing), which means he has missed roughly 40% of the Sox games he’s been eligible to play up to this point. The talent is definitely there. But if you can’t play the game, those “five tools” are completely worthless.
Dylan Cease: The real gem of the rebuild, Dylan has compiled a 34-23 record with a 3.66 ERA, 118 ERA+ and 7.3 WAR since 2019. His 2021 season was excellent, featuring 13 wins and leading the league in starts with 32, to go along with 226 strikeouts in 165.2 innings. His 2022 season has been transcendent, with 12 wins, a 1.96 ERA, 204 ERA+, a 4.4 WAR and 174 strikeouts in 128.2 innings. There is either a Cy Young award or a massive free agent deal with a better team in his future. Or maybe both.
Eloy Jimenez: Being honest, Eloy is my second favorite player on the White Sox after Jose Abreu. But he suffers from the same issue as Luis Robert: An inability to stay healthy. Eloy has played 271 games for the White Sox over the past four seasons, out of 497 possible. That’s roughly 55%. Just a little more than half of the games he could have played in. While his stat line is certainly solid (.273/.319/.498 with an .817 OPS and 118 OPS+), it doesn’t really matter if you can’t stay in the lineup.
Blake Rutherford: Blake was going to be the third outfielder with Robert and Eloy. He was highly-touted coming from the Yankees. However, in his six-year minor league career, he has compiled a .250/.286/.404 stat line with an OPS of .731. Those numbers wouldn’t cut it at the MLB level, let alone the MiLB level, and he was designated for assignment before being brought back off the 40 man roster.
Jose Ruiz: It’s amazing to think this guy is in his fifth season on the south side. Ruiz looked like he had turned a corner in 2021 (3.05 ERA, 144 ERA+, 1.1 WAR) but he has quickly fallen back to earth in 2022 (4.03 ERA, 99 ERA+, 0.5 WAR). Good stuff but nothing more than a spare arm that should never see a high-leverage situation.
James McCann: Even though he’s no longer on the team, I just wanted to point out that McCann signed a four-year, $40 million deal with the Mets the year after Yasmani Grandal signed a four-year, $73 million deal with the White Sox. Considering both of their numbers with those teams, I can’t imagine anyone would want four years of Grandal at $33 million more than McCann. Neither can hit a beach ball but McCann is certainly more mobile behind the plate. For the record, McCann’s stat line with the Mets (.223/.285/.335) compared with Grandal’s line with the Sox (.225/.368/.408 and Grandal’s OBP is out of whack due to his insane 2021 season and .420 OBP). Nothing will ever convince me that Grandal is $33 million better than McCann.
Yasmani Grandal: See above. I don’t know if the Sox thought they were getting Carlton Fisk 2.0 but they didn’t. Grandal was on the wrong side of 30 and was coming off a 2019 season with the Milwaukee Brewers in which he hit a career-high 28 home runs and drove in a career-high 77. He’s come nowhere near those numbers since while making $18 million a year. His 2022 batting line (.203/.307/.264) will be the worst of his career by far and he still has another season to go at $18 million. I know it’s unpopular to say, especially among the fan boys, but that was a truly poor signing.
Nomar Mazara: This deal made me angry because I really started to notice the Sox had decided to take the cheap way out in their future acquisitions. The Chicago press presented him as untapped potential, even though he had over 2,000 plate appearances at the MLB level. I heard numbers thrown about like “35 home runs and 100 RBI” from a guy who had never hit more than 20. I told everyone who would listen it was a bad signing. Come to find out, it was a bad signing. Mazara hit .228/.295/.294 with 3 home runs in 42 games and was not brought back after the season.
Dallas Keuchel: Another deal I didn’t like. Not that I didn’t like the signing at the time but the contract was insane from my perspective. Clearly on the downside of his career, Keuchel got a three-year deal from the White Sox for $55.5 million. This was nothing more than a way for the White Sox to save face after Zack Wheeler signed with the Philadelphia Phillies for less money, embarrassing the White Sox organization in the process. So what did the White Sox get for that $55.5 million? A 17-16 record, a 4.79 ERA, a 91 ERA+ and a 0.9 WAR. Also $18 million wasted that they have to pay him after he was DFA’d.
Edwin Encarnacion: Not much to say here, his contract wasn’t that outlandish (one year for $12 million) but in typical form, he was a free agent signing that woefully under performed. In 44 games, Encarnacion put up a .157/.250/.377 stat line with a 70 OPS+ with 10 home runs and 19 RBI. He topped off what is, in retrospect, and absolutely horrible offseason that was celebrated at the time.
Lance Lynn: I like Lance Lynn, and he’s been relatively successful in his White Sox tenure, but I would have stopped short of giving him the two-year, $38 million extension he received. While his first year was certainly acceptable (2.69 ERA, 163 ERA+, 5.3 WAR), he’s not looking like he’s worth the money in 2022 (5.88 ERA, 68 ERA+, -0.7 WAR). A starting pitcher could be found somewhere to put up better numbers than that at half the price.
Adam Eaton: This is just covering his second round with the White Sox. Eaton was signed to a $7 million deal after perennial target Joc Pederson refused to sign and instead took less money to play across town for the Cubs. Eaton’s return engagement was not quite as productive as his first, as he compiled a .201/.298/.344 stat line with a 75 OPS+ and 0 WAR. The hole in right field that Mazara was supposed to fill ate up Eaton as well. He was designated for assignment after 58 games.
Liam Hendriks: Another sore spot with me. The numbers didn’t tell the story with this guy, either. A failed starter who then became a failed middle reliever somehow caught lightning in a bottle and became a very good closer for a year and a half before the White Sox dumped a three-year, $54 million deal in his lap. Hendriks is a low-leverage closer who does his best work starting a clean inning with a three-run lead. Anything less than that and I’m on the edge of my seat waiting for him to blow it.
Kendall Graveman: A good signing (though a bit expensive for a set-up man at three years and $24 million) who has pitched very well and looks like a good investment so far, with a 2.59 ERA, 155 ERA+ and 1.1 WAR so far in 2022.
Leury Garcia: Longest-tenured White Sox player, been with the team for a full decade. And in that full decade, he has put up a .253/.294/.353 stat line with an OPS+ of 77 (remember, 100 is average and this is over the entire 10 years he’s played for the White Sox) and a WAR, over 10 years, of 4.5. And signed a three-year, $16.5 million contract prior to the 2022 season. I don’t care if he can play every position on the field, pop the corn and clean the toilets, you can pick up utility players every day that would make half that amount and put up superior statistics. No one will ever be able to explain this to me to my satisfaction.
Joe Kelly: “Let’s throw money at the bullpen” seemed to be the mantra of the White Sox front office during the 2021-22 offseason. Joe Kelly was not really a needed asset, and his multiple injuries in 2022 to go along with his 5.84 ERA and -0.4 WAR show this wasn’t a great investment. Yes, his numbers are skewed by his poor start to the season, but this is supposed to be a team that’s contending for a World Series, not nursing guys back to health that shouldn’t have been signed in the first place.
Josh Harrison: I like Josh Harrison, but I didn’t like this signing other than it would have been perfect as a replacement for Leury Garcia. Harrison’s days of being an everyday second baseman should have ended around 2017 in Pittsburgh, and he should be a full time utility player, a role I believe he would excel in. He started extremely poorly in 2022 but has since ramped up his stats to an acceptable level (.245/.312/.381 with a 96 OPS+ and 1.7 WAR) for a utility player, far better than Garcia is producing.
A.J. Pollock: I wanted to see the Sox acquire Pollock in 2019, when he left the Arizona Diamondbacks for the Los Angeles Dodgers as a free agent. That version of Pollock was coming off a 21 home run season, a .257/.316/.484 stat line with an OPS+ of 108 and a 2.2 WAR. The A.J. Pollock the White Sox got is hitting .236/.287/.351 with five home runs and a -0.1 WAR.
Johnny Cueto: After all those acquisitions that failed to pan out or even come close to what was expected, Johnny Cueto was a Godsend. A 2.91 ERA, 137 ERA+ and 2.9 WAR in 15 starts is outstanding, and I’d have to think there’s nothing less than a 100% chance he’ll get a free agent deal this offseason that prices him right out of the White Sox plans. In fact, to put it into perspective, Cueto is making roughly half what Lucas Giolito is making and about about ¼ what Lance Lynn is making.
If we look at this rebuild academically, with our minds instead of our hearts or fandom, it’s clear it’s been a massive failure pretty much across the board. This team, as it is built now, has no chance whatsoever of getting to the World Series. The offense is worse than any I’ve ever seen, regardless of how poor the opposing pitcher is. Pitchers with ERA’s above 5.00 routinely shut down the White Sox offense.
I’m worried about where we go from here. The concept of just saying “well, let’s just take the same group into next season and hope it’s better” isn’t going to do anything for anyone, and I’m sure Jerry Reinsdorf doesn’t want to spend another $200 million on a .500 team. But those long-term contracts that Eloy Jimenez and Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada and Luis Robert signed, along with the overpays for Liam Hendriks and Leury Garcia and Kendall Graveman and Lance Lynn have the Sox in a precarious position, there isn’t going to be a lot of roster turnover (Cueto and Jose Abreu and Josh Harrison are the only pending free agents) unless the White Sox can somehow convince another team to take one of those overstuffed contracts off the books.
That’s not gonna be easy because I can’t picture anyone saying “sure, I’ll take two years of Yoan Moncada at $41 million and I’ll give you a nice prospect package or a serviceable veteran at a lower pay rate in return.” The long-term deals didn’t quite work out the way the deals for Chris Sale, Adam Eaton and Jose Quintana did. Those were the building blocks of the rebuild. This team is in a purgatory where they can’t really move those contracts to rebuild because the players attached to them are not worth the money they’re being paid, pretty much across the board (with the exception being Johnny Cueto). This is basically what happened to the Chicago Cubs, who priced their players right out of their payroll. But at least they got a World Series ring out of the deal. The only White Sox players with rings in their future will be getting wedding rings.
If I were running this organization, this offseason I would trade Tim Anderson and Lucas Giolito (both of whom I don’t expect to be around long term and both of whom are at the height of their value as trade pieces), I would see if Jake Burger is a legitimate full-season third base option and if I can’t trade Moncada, I’d DFA him after next season (it would be easier to accept blowing $20 million than $40 million for absolutely nothing). I’d also DFA Leury Garcia. The Sox were willing to do so with Dallas Keuchel and the money would be less if Garcia were DFA’d next season. The problem is I just don’t see the Sox being willing to either eat that much money in DFA’s or be willing to admit that chances that extreme need to be made. But the Sox managed to get rid of Chris Sale, who had far more success than Lucas Giolito (who is guaranteed gone as a free agent after the 2023 season anyway). The bottom line is, changes need to be made.
If you took the time to read this entire presentation, I thank you. I’ve worked on this for the better part of three days because I’m tired of arguing with people about the state of this franchise. It’s in a bad way right now. The Sox aren’t suddenly going to “get hot” and just mow through the rest of the season and the playoffs and win the World Series. Those things just don’t happen. Or don’t happen often. Everyone uses the 2021 Atlanta Braves as an example but what are the chances of that happening two years in a row?
I sincerely believe the Cleveland Guardians will win the AL Central in 2022, with the White Sox finishing second and the Minnesota Twins finishing third. The Sox will also fall short of the Wild Card. At that point, hopefully changes will be made. Or they’ll stand pat and say “if it wasn’t for all the injuries…”
Every year the Sox Machine blog posts a template for what is known as the “offseason plan project,” where anyone can give their thoughts on what they would like the White Sox to do in the offseason, in terms of whether to tender or non-tender eligible players, sign or not sign pending free agents, propose trades and things like that.
Rather than filling it out and posting on their blog I just decided to pinch their template and fill it out myself, which will make my offseason plans blog a lot easier to follow along with. I don’t want this to end up being 5,000 words like my last entry. And I need to point out, this isn’t what I think the team is going to do, this is what I would do.
I did this last year as well, and was horribly wrong with all of my predictions, so we’ll see how it flies this year. I think things are a little more “defined” this year with the roster so there won’t be a lot of changes except in the bullpen and at second base.
So, here we go.
PREAMBLE
The White Sox are still the class of the AL Central, though the Detroit Tigers are closing the gap and closing it fast, especially with their young pitching. I still see the White Sox winning the division by at least five games, however.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
The number after the player name is what MLB Trade Rumors projects the player will receive in arbitration.
Lucas Giolito: $7.9M – Tender. This is a textbook example of a “no-brainer.” Lance Lynn, Giolito and Dylan Cease are the backbone of the rotation.
Reynaldo Lopez: $2.8 – Tender. He did a great job in the spot I said three years ago he was made for, a long reliever and spot starter. Now that “bullpen games” are a thing, it’s nice to have a former full-time starter in that spot.
Evan Marshall: $2.3M – Non-tender. Some people say bring him back on a Minor League deal since he’s about to have Tommy John Surgery. I say don’t bother, thanks for the help the past few years but it’s time for you to move along.
Brian Goodwin: $1.7M – Non-tender. I like Goodwin alright but at this point he would be a fifth or sixth outfielder and I don’t see that being worth $1.7 million.
Jimmy Cordero: $1.2M – Non-tender. This guy’s career was nearly ruined by Ricky Renteria, but he’s not worth $1.2 million at this point. I would extend a Minor League deal and an invitation to Spring Training, however.
Adam Engel: $2.2M – Tender. Last season I wanted to see Engel start full time in right field, but the Sox brain trust decided that signing Adam Eaton was the answer. I said that wasn’t a good idea, come to find out it wasn’t a good idea. I do like the idea of bringing back Engel but just as a fourth outfielder, pinch hitter and pinch runner.
Jace Fry: $1M – Non-tender. This guy has pitched in 162 games at the Major League level. He has a career ERA of 5.04. He shouldn’t be anywhere near a million dollar salary.
CLUB OPTIONS
Write “pick up” or “decline” or “rework” after the option. These were already announced but I’m giving my theory behind what I would have done had I been in charge.
Craig Kimbrel: $16M – Pick Up. Yes, he sucked with the White Sox but lights-out closers don’t grow on trees and he’ll be worth something to someone, a team that’s smart enough to use him where he’s comfortable, not as a set-up man. The Sox won’t get a return anywhere near what they paid, but getting anything back at all is a bird in the hand.
Cesar Hernandez: $6M – Pick Up. Yes, he sucked with the White Sox (is there an echo in here?) but given his salary and the lack of good available second basemen, I’d absolutely have brought him back and given him a chance to make us forget 2021.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, or let go?
Leury Garcia (Made $3.5 million in 2021) – Resign – I would bring Leury back at the right price, as insurance at second base and as my main utility player. Having said that, he would NOT play every day or even close to that. Once or twice a week, unless he’s filling in for someone injured.
Carlos Rodon (Made $3M in 2021) – Let Go – So long, Carlos. His inability to stay healthy for a full season in seven years is not lost on anyone, and the idea of him getting a three or four-year deal in this economic climate in baseball is a joke. He’ll get a one-year “prove you can stay healthy just once” deal and I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t get another one-year deal for 2023, or maybe a one-year deal with a club option or vesting options if he pitches a certain number of innings.
Billy Hamilton (Made $1M in 2021) – Resign – I like the idea of bringing Billy back as a fifth or sixth outfielder because there is no one equal with the glove or the speed that he can bring to the roster. I wouldn’t want to see him starting for an extended period but he definitely has a place on the roster.
Ryan Tepera (Made $950,000 in 2021) – Resign – He was absolutely lights out with the Sox in 2021 (and with the Cubs, as well) but he’s going to make up for his paltry salary. Given the lack of arms in the White Sox bullpen right now, I would offer Tepera a two-year deal for $8 million as a starting point and be willing to go two-years for $12 million at most.FREE AGENTS
List three free-agent targets you’d pursue during the offseason, with a reasonable contract.
Ryan Tepera (White Sox relief pitcher) – For the reasons mentioned above. There are few better relief arms available on the market and the White Sox bullpen has been decimated. Hold on to one of the best. Two years, $8 million.
Leury Garcia (White Sox IF/OF) – As I said above, I don’t want to see Leury on the field every day unless there’s an injury. He’s the longest-tenured player on the team and deserves to see it through. He can also play any position on the diamond except first base and catcher and play them well. His bat isn’t gonna win a Silver Slugger anytime soon, but it’s far superior to Danny Mendick and years of experience counts for something too. He’s also go the hottest wife in the organization but that’s neither here nor there. Two-years, $8 million.
Collin McHugh (Rays relief pitcher) – I acquired this guy in 2020 on MLB The Show because (a) he’s got a career ERA under 3.80 and is 20 games over .500, (b) in 37 games last year, including 7 starts, he had a 1.55 ERA and (c) he was born in Naperville. This is the guy you want in your bullpen as a contender, not Jose Ruiz.
TRADES
Propose trades that you think sound reasonable for both sides, and the rationale behind them.
Dallas Keuchel and $10 million to whatever team will take him for whatever they’ll offer. Some of you will no doubt think I’m crazy but I didn’t realize until just a few days ago that Dallas Keuchel does NOT have a mutual option in his contract, he has a VESTING option: If he pitches 160 innings in 2022, he will then be under contract in 2023 for $20 million. If you think there’s NO chance of that happening, he pitched 162 innings in 2021. Get a Minor League player who ranks between 15-20 on his club and get this guy out of town, fast.
Yoan Moncada to the Seattle Mariners for one of their Minor League outfielders. The Mariners are loaded with top-shelf Minor League outfielders and their starting third baseman for the past decade, Kyle Seager, is a free agent. While I’m a fan of Moncada, his salary more than doubles in 2022 (from $6 million to $13 million) and tops off in 2024 at $24 million. For that kind of money, I’d like more than .263/14/61 and 157 strikeouts. This will also give some payroll relief going forward. I’d give Jake Burger every opportunity to take over at third base, even if that means hitting him in the 9th spot in the order and letting him work through whatever issues he’ll have, just like the Sox did with Robin Ventura over 20 years ago. Robin had an 0-41 streak at one point during his rookie season but they didn’t lose faith and he became one of the best third basemen in franchise history.
Craig Kimbrel to the Philadelphia Phillies for MiLB IF Logan Simmons and LHP Kyle Dohy. These two are not top prospects for the Phillies but given Kimbrel’s poor two months with the White Sox, it’s definitely not a bad return. Dohy made it to the Phillies last season after a tough year at AAA but you can always find room for a LHP in the bullpen. Simmons is more of a long-term flier, he can play second, short and third and he’s only 21 years old, showing good power (21 home runs in 413 career Minor League at-bats) and speed 14 stolen bases). He won’t help now, but when the next rebuild begins in 2024 or 2025, he could be a good piece to have on hand.
SUMMARY
My lineup will consist of Yasmani Grandal at catcher, Jose Abreu at first, Cesar Hernandez at second, Tim Anderson at shortstop and Jake Burger at third, with Eloy Jimenez in left, Luis Robert in center and Andrew Vaughn and Gavin Sheets platooning in right. Vaughn and Sheets would also split the DH role with whoever needs a day off. The bench will consist of Zack Collins, Leury Garcia, Adam Engel, Billy Hamilton and a couple of current minor leaguers as depth pieces.
My rotation would consist of Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech and Jimmy Lambert, with a mix of Reynaldo Lopez and Garret Crochet handling long relief and spot starts. Aaron Bummer and Ryan Burr handling set-up duties with Liam Hendriks closing. The rest of the bullpen would consist of Tepera, McHugh, Matt Foster and whatever Minor League arms have a good Spring Training, possibly Jimmy Cordero.
I know the fan boys are going to hate this, because I’m sure they’re sitting with their phones right now just waiting to hear that the White Sox signed Marcus Semien to play second base and Nick Castellanos or Michael Conforto to play right field. I absolutely guarantee none of those moves are going to happen. The payroll currently sits around $140 million, and that’s before those arbitration numbers are figured in.
This is why I think now is a good time to try moving some excess payroll. Moncada is not so dynamic that he’s worth the money he’s going to be making the next three seasons, Keuchel could be making $38 million over the next two seasons (and definitely making $18 million in 2022). Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert are also due raises each year for the next few years as well, and the White Sox only have control over Lucas Giolito until 2024.
I’d love to see the White Sox just go balls out with a $200 million payroll but that has never happened and it’s never going to happen, at least not this decade. So if you’re looking for free agents, don’t look for the $200 or $300 million deals, look for the one-year or two-year deals for under $20 million to fill in the holes. The rebuild is over, for now.
And for everyone who wants to crucify me every year for saying the Sox aren’t signing any $100 million free agents, just remember that they never have, even when they had the payroll flexibility to do so. And by 2024, this team, just as it is now, will have an astronomical payroll, and at that point, a new rebuild will begin. So hopefully, over the next couple of years, the White Sox can get to (and win) a World Series. They have the talent.
I decided that this year I would do an immediate review of the Chicago White Sox season rather than waiting and letting things settle down and taking emotion out of the equation. I wanted to allow myself some feelings in the review instead of being so academic about it. So, immediately following the White Sox ALDS Game Four loss to the Astros, I went to work.
Looking at the big picture, it was a reasonably successful season for the White Sox. A 93-69 record and the American League Central Division title was almost expected, but winning the division by 13 games was not. The Sox were the only AL Central team with a record over .500 and the Minnesota Twins, two-time defending champions, bottomed out with a 73-89 record and a last-place finish. On the surface, it was a dominating performance by the Sox.
But if you look a little closer, you see just how much of a down year it was for the division. The Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals are embarking on rebuilds, the Twins just imploded and the Cleveland Indians were unable to overcome injuries to their starting rotation. And the White Sox, in general, feasted on their division rivals. They were not as good against teams over .500 and that was a known issue when the team headed into the playoffs.
Manager Tony La Russa was a surprise, as much as a Hall of Fame manager can surprise, as a lot of fans thought he would be a poor fit with the team. That was not the case and he had an exceptionally good season, and should finish in the top two for AL Manager of the Year. I hope he’ll be back in 2022 because the options to replace him do not instill much confidence.
The lineup was expected to be a juggernaut and fell well short of expectations. Part of this, of course, was due to injury, as RF Eloy Jimenez, C Yasmani Grandal and CF Luis Robert all spent extensive stretches on the injured list. White Grandal and Robert seemed to catch fire after they returned, Jimenez seemed lost after his return from the IL. Shortstop Tim Anderson and OF Adam Engel also spent time on the IL and injuries were a year-long issue for the franchise.
Among the players who were able to remain healthy, 3B Yoan Moncada saw his numbers take a precipitous drop from 2019 (.315 with 25 home runs and 79 RBI in 149 games in 2019 compared to .263 with 14 home runs and 61 RBI in 144 games in 2021). First baseman Jose Abreu put up extremely similar power numbers (33 home runs and 123 RBI in 2019 with 30 home runs and 117 RBI in 2021) but saw his batting average lose more than 20 points.
The pitching staff was supposed to be one of the league’s best and fell far short, both the starting rotation and the bullpen. Lucas Giolito was an early season Cy Young favorite and finished the year with an 11-9 record and a 3.53 ERA, while Dallas Keuchel completely fell off, with a 9-9 record and an unsightly 5.28 ERA. Lance Lynn and Carlos Rodon both had solid seasons but injuries were an issue, leaving Dylan Cease (13 wins and 226 strikeouts in 165 innings) as the de facto ace, with Jimmy Lambert being the only legit minor league option.
The White Sox bullpen carried the team at times, as closer Liam Hendriks lead the American League in saves (38) despite giving up more home runs (11) than walks (7). The trade deadline move for All Star closer Craig Kimbrel was a complete and total bust, as Kimbrel’s splits between the Cubs (0.49 ERA, 64 strikeouts, 13 walks) and White Sox (5.09 ERA, 36 strikeouts, 10 walks) were shocking. Future starters Michael Kopech and Garrett Crochet were solid but their time in the bullpen should end, if not next season by 2023 at the latest.
The future, however, isn’t as bright as the fan boys would have you think.
No, I’m not expecting a Twins-style fall-off. The Sox will still be contenders. But there are problems and they are significant. For starters, the Sox are going to be looking for a right fielder for the third straight season. The White Sox tried a committee in 2019 after letting Avisail Garcia leave, then brought in Nomar Mazara in 2020 and Adam Eaton in 2021, all small-minded moves made on a budget and all failed miserably and the hole still remains.
Second base is also a question mark now with the trade of former first round pick Nick Madrigal to the Cubs in the Kimbrel deal and the deadline acquisition of Cesar Hernandez from the Indians, though Hernandez hit only .232 (compared to his .270 career average) with three home runs in 53 games. Hernandez has a $6 million club option for 2022 and may return anyway despite his lackluster season due to lack of options and his reasonable salary. Which brings me to the biggest issue this offseason: The payroll.
As of this moment, the White Sox 2022 payroll stands at $141 million, an astronomical sum for this club, and not counting potential free agents or any players with club options, like Hernandez and Kimbrel (for the record, Kimbrel’s option is valued at $16 million). Many of the players the club signed in previous years to long-term extensions are due for large raises, not the least of which is Moncada, who will go from making $6 million in 2021 to $13 million in 2022. Jimenez and Robert will both see their salaries double and Tim Anderson is set to get a $2 million raise. Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez should both expect raises as well.
Adding those numbers to the big salaries for Abreu, Lynn, Grandal and the basically-worthless Keuchel (all of whom are scheduled to make more than $18 million in 2022) will absolutely handcuff the White Sox when it comes to potential free agent upgrades.
The fact is, the 2021-22 free agent class isn’t exactly outstanding, other than the shortstop class, which the Sox have no use for. Second base and right field, the spots the White Sox need help the most, are generally weak, minus second baseman Marcus Semien who should easily score $20 million annually in free agency and right fielder Nick Castellanos, who can opt out of the remaining two years and $34 million on his contract with the Cincinnati Reds. There is no way the White Sox can afford to sign top-shelf talent with the current payroll situation, so they’ll likely continue to do bargain bin shopping and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.
It’s also only going to get worse as by 2024 Moncada will be earning $24 million, and Jimenez and Robert will hit the $10 million mark by 2023. The payroll will be completely out of control by 2023 and at that point I expect a tear down and likely anyone on the roster besides Robert and youngsters like Andrew Vaughn and Gavin Sheets and Kopech and Crochet is likely to be traded for prospects and some payroll relief.
There is no doubt in my mind that 2021 was the year for the White Sox to win the World Series. The division was winnable (though I never imagined winning it by 13 games) and there was no clear-cut dominant team in the American League. Instead, the offense fell flat on it’s face for a large portion of the season and the pitching struggled and another first round playoff exit was the end result. So while it feels like it was a reasonably successful season, the finish was basically the same as last season other than the division title. And things will get a lot more difficult in the division next season as the Twins and Indians attempt to rebound and the Tigers and Royals take the next steps in their rebuilds. While the White Sox should still win the division in 2022 I can’t see next year’s playoffs going much better than the 2021 version. And chances are the Wild Card teams will both come from the AL East again, so finishing second in the AL Central won’t be worth anything.
Besides second base and right field, decisions have to be made regarding the backup catcher situation (where I would keep Zack Collins, but that’s just me), the rotation (where Carlos Rodon is a free agent and Dallas Keuchel is an $18 million question mark) and the bullpen (I can’t see Kimbrel’s option being picked up and Ryan Tepera is a free agent). Also, super-sub Leury Garcia is a free agent and he played all over the diamond in 2021 and drove in 54 runs.
There is also very little talent in the minor leagues that is Major League ready, and the system itself ranks next to last in Major League Baseball, just ahead of the Washington Nationals. While Jared Kelley, Norge Vera, Sean Burke and Matthew Thompson all have future potential, none are even close to being Major League-ready and there are few bats that figure to ever make the transition. The fact that Jake Burger is still a highly-ranked prospect at age 26 shows how thin the talent is in the organization. This lack of depth, on both the MLB and MiLB levels, will hurt when injuries strike.
It’s not going to be easy in 2022 but the White Sox should win the AL Central and make the playoffs again, but another first-round exit is likely. I can’t see Tony La Russa managing more than one more season, and I’m anxious to see what direction the franchise goes in 2023, whether they go “outside the family” for a manager or hand the job to bench coach Miguel Cairo for the inevitable rebuild that should begin in 2024, or 2025 at the latest.
In closing, I’ve been a White Sox fan for 30+ years and that’s not going to change. And while it isn’t pleasant knowing the White Sox likely won’t make it to a World Series during the early to mid-2020’s, its still nice to be able to at least have the chance by being a consistent playoff participant. Hopefully next year the team will show some kind of sense of urgency, even though I don’t think it’s going to matter in the long run, I have no doubt 2021 should have been “the year” and it was, without question, the best chance for a World Series win.
OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 30: Yasmani Grandal #24 of the Chicago White Sox is congratulated by Jose Abreu #79 after Grandal hit a two-run home run against the Oakland Athletics during the eighth inning of Game Two of the American League Wild Card Round at RingCentral Coliseum on September 30, 2020 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
As a longtime Chicago White Sox fan, I can say this offseason has been quite a roller coaster ride. The disgust over the deciding third game of the 2020 American League Wild Card series against the A’s turned into absolute euphoria at the announcement that manager Rick Renteria and pitching coach Don Cooper had been relieved of their duties.
That quickly turned to surprise and confusion when general manager Rick Hahn did a 180 on his “what we’re looking for in a manager” talk, telling the press he wanted to hire a manager with recent championship experience, only to turn around and pass on the guy he was describing (A.J. Hinch) to bring back a nearly 80-year old Tony La Russa.
In turn, that negativity quickly turned around with the hiring of pitching coach Ethan Katz, who turned the career of Lucas Giolito around completely and will hopefully be the breath of fresh air the White Sox pitching staff has needed for five years or more.
While I really did think Hinch was the goal, I can live with La Russa for a couple of years managing the team because I know he’s well-schooled and one of the most successful managers in the history of the game. No one will out-manage him. But I do admit I’m worried about what comes after La Russa leaves the dugout, who will replace him.
As to the roster, I was never stupid enough to believe the White Sox would drop $30 million a year on Trevor Bauer, though I did think maybe there was a chance they would loosen the purse strings for George Springer, not at $30 million annually but maybe at or around $20 million. As it turns out, the purse strings are still quite taut, as instead of spending $30 million on one player, the White Sox will spend $15 million for two, acquiring starting pitcher Lance Lynn from the Texas Rangers and signing retread Adam Eaton as a free agent, with Lynn making $8 million in 2021 and Eaton pulling down $7 million.
So far, these are not the moves of a major market team gearing up for a championship run. These are the moves of a small market team who thinks they have enough in the tank to make a one-year run at a championship before it all comes crashing down.
Rick Hahn had said on numerous occasions that the White Sox would not be taking on “rentals,” or players with one year (or less, depending on when they were acquired) of control in exchange for younger talent that they had multiple years of control over. In a trade that reeks of Kenny Williams, the White Sox traded former Top 100 prospect Dane Dunning (who is basically under control until 2027, the last year he’ll be arb eligible) for ONE YEAR of Lance Lynn. And if Lynn goes out in his first Spring Training appearance and his elbow pops? The White Sox are just plain out of luck, without much depth behind him.
Big market championship teams have depth. They can overcome a serious injury and still make a run. If the White Sox were to lose one of their starting five, it’s anyone’s guess where they’re going to get a replacement. Pull Garrett Crochet out of the bullpen and stick him in the rotation to work 200 innings? To put that into perspective, in three years at the University of Tennessee, Crochet worked a total of 132 innings. Jonathan Stiever? He has worked a total of 173 minor league innings. Of course, there’s always Reynaldo Lopez.
After those three, there is literally nothing. A major injury would be a disaster. Two major injuries would cripple the franchise in 2021 and possibly beyond, especially if the injury turned out to be a Tommy John situation. These are dangerous waters.
There is also the back end of the White Sox bullpen, as they are rumored to be pursuing Oakland A’s closer Liam Hendriks (or at least the Chicago press is hoping they are) while the White Sox own closer for the past two years, Alex Colome, is also a free agent. While the smart money says they’ve GOT to bring one of those two in to close, there’s also the possibility that they hand the job to Aaron Bummer and his $3 million contract.
Again, this is what small market teams do, they make due with what they can.
The offense can be otherworldly, assuming catcher Yasmani Grandal doesn’t get injured, third baseman Yoan Moncada bounces back from COVID-19, Luis Robert makes adjustments from his poor final month of the season and Eaton shows his three year regression with the Nationals is a fluke rather than a trend (everyone already knows what I think).
Barring injury, there’s no reason this team can’t win the American League Central with the team they have. But one catastrophic injury, especially in the rotation, and their goose is cooked. I’m still hopeful of at least one more starting pitcher as well as one of the two closers mentioned earlier and maybe an extra outfielder who can split time with Eaton or Jimenez in the outfield and also spend time at DH. I think the perfect pick for that spot would be Michael Brantley, of the Houston Astros. A veteran and a winner, with a .297 career batting average, he could play a day or two a week in the outfield while Eaton or Jimenez serves as DH, and then DH himself while those two play the outfield.
This would also be good for top prospect Andrew Vaughn, who has never played above Class A and if he were handed the DH job with no safety net and failed, now you’ve got another hole in the lineup. Brantley would solve a lot of problems in one signing. You also can’t overestimate having a winning veteran in the clubhouse with a young team.
So at this point (December 18, 2020), I’m underwhelmed with the White Sox offseason so far. The bungled managerial hiring, trading seven years of Dane Dunning for one year of Lance Lynn and bringing back Adam Eaton were all poor decisions, but none of them should have lasting implications, as I doubt La Russa lasts more than two years in the dugout and Lynn and Eaton will both likely be gone in 2022, regardless of Eaton’s option.
However, a lot can be rectified by signing Brantley and either Colome or Hendriks, as well as another starter, preferably either Jose Quintana or James Paxton, who can fill in the back of the rotation, allow Dylan Cease to hold down the fifth spot as he works to regain his lost command, let Michael Kopech get himself back into game shape at AAA Charlotte after a full two years off and move Reynaldo Lopez into a swingman role as a long reliever and spot starter, a role I think he would excel in because he still has outstanding stuff.
Next year (2021) will mark 30 years I’ve been a Chicago White Sox fan, and while it’s been great to experience the 2005 World Series title and the division titles in 1993, 2000, 2005 and 2008 and the Wild Card appearance in 2020, that’s not much to show in 30 years. I’m hoping the 30 years going forward, and especially the next five or six, will exceed the previous 30, but this team needs to develop a winning attitude, not so much on the field as they do in the front office. So I’ll wait to see what happens between now and February before I make a final grade on the White Sox offseason. But there definitely needs to be some more improvement and it would still be cheaper overall than signing Trevor Bauer for $30 million.
The Jason J. Connor Experience 