Talkin’ Baseball: My Take On The Sox Machine 2023-24 Offseason Plan Project

Posted on October 27, 2023 by Jason J. Connor

Every year the Sox Machine website posts a template for what is known as the “Off-season Plan Project,” where anyone can give their thoughts on what they would like the White Sox to do in the offseason, in terms of whether to tender or non-tender eligible players, sign or not sign pending free agents, propose trades and things like that. Basically, playing general manager.

So, here is my Off-season Plan Project for the 2023-24 offseason. Like last year, I’m going to do list not only what I would do in terms of roster construction, but what I think the team will do as well.

PREAMBLE

This is going to be a transition year, from the “window of contention” White Sox to the “let’s try this again” White Sox. The 2024 season will be the bridge between them. I expect another 100 loss season and the firing of manager Pedro Grifol and his staff following the 2024 season.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

Dylan Cease: $8.8M (tender, I think the Sox will tender)
Andrew Vaughn: $3.7M (tender, I think the Sox will tender)
Michael Kopech: $3.6M (tender, I think the Sox will tender)
Touki Toussaint: $1.7M (tender, I think the Sox will tender)
Trayce Thompson: $1.7M (non-tender, I think the Sox will non-tender)
Garrett Crochet: $900,000 (tender, I think the Sox will tender)
Clint Frazier: $900,000 (non-tender, I think the Sox will non-tender)
Matt Foster: $740,000 (tender, I think the Sox will tender)

Most of these are no-brainers. Cease is the ace of the staff, Vaughn is a former third-overall pick in the MLB Draft and Crochet was also a first-round pick. On the flip side of that, Thompson (a 37 OPS+ in 36 games with the Sox in 2023) and Frazier (a 52 OPS+ in 33 games with the Sox) should have played themselves off any MLB roster going forward and should consider going to Japan or South Korea. I think this will be Kopech’s last chance to amount to something. Toussaint showed enough in 2023 to at least be a depth piece or a spot starter. Foster is coming off injury but will only be making the league minimum and this team needs pitching in the worst way.

CLUB OPTIONS

Tim Anderson: $14M ($1M buyout) (pick up, I would trade if possible, I think the Sox will pick up)

Liam Hendriks: $15M ($15M buyout, paid over 10 years at $1.5M) (buyout, I think the Sox will buyout)

I’ll address TA later but I would definitely pick up the option to begin the offseason. Hendriks is a special case, considering his Tommy John surgery but there’s no reason to spend $15 million this year on a pitcher who won’t be pitching for a team that won’t be contending. Don’t feel bad, he’ll still be getting $1.5 million a year and that’s more than most of us are making.

MUTUAL OPTIONS

Mike Clevinger: $12M ($4 million buyout) (I think he’ll take the buyout)

I wasn’t a fan of Clevinger, and I’m not a fan now. Yes, he was the best pitcher on this team in 2023, that says more about the state of the Sox starting staff than it does about Clevinger. His numbers were good (3.77 ERA, 9 wins, 3.3 WAR, 118 ERA+) and maybe he can get a multi-year deal with a contender to be a fifth starter, which is what he was supposed to be when he signed with the Sox.

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

Yasmani Grandal (Made $18.25M in 2023) (let him walk, I think the Sox let him walk)
Elvis Andrus ($3M) (let him walk, I think the Sox let him walk)
Bryan Shaw ($720,000) (resign him, I think the Sox let him walk)
Jose Urena ($720,000) (let him walk, I think the Sox let him walk)

Grandal will forever be the face of the failed rebuild, a $72 million contract for an OPS+ of 99 and a cumulative WAR of 2.5 over four years. Nothing says “White Sox” more than that. Andrus and Urena were just “the best of the bad options” that were available when they signed. Shaw is a different matter entirely. He was a horse coming out of the bullpen in 2023 and while his ERA was a tad high (4.14) he finished 17 games (including four saves) and struck out 40 and walked 17 in 45.2 innings. This is the same guy who lead the league pitching in 81 games in 2021 with the Guardians. I’d absolutely bring him back, with a nice raise, say $900,000. He earned it.

FREE AGENTS

No. 1: Gary Sanchez, Catcher (two years, $16 million). This guy can do everything Grandal was supposed to do, but, you know, actually DO IT. He’s only 30 but he’s a veteran of nine years. Last season he hit 19 home runs (compared to eight for Grandal) to go along with a 2.4 WAR. All that while making $1.5 million. This team needs a catcher who has some success doing the job and he’s done it. I don’t care about the .217 batting average, 136 strikeouts. He’s still a major net-positive over what’s on the roster right now. In two years, the Sox can call up Edgar Quero and Sanchez can move on.

No. 2: Lucas Giolito and Jack Flaherty, Pitchers (each at one year, $15 million with an option for 2025). Buying on the cheap, two guys who need to rebuild their value after having lackluster 2023 seasons, reuniting with Sox pitching coach Ethan Katz (as most people know, he was their pitching coach at Harvard-Westlake High School) and that not only fills out two-fifths of the rotation for 2024 but also gives two good trade chips at the 2024 trade deadline. There’s nothing to not like about this option, considering the Sox needs in the rotation and the young pitchers they acquired at the 2023 deadline are nowhere close to ready to compete for a rotation spot.

No. 3: Whit Merrifield, 2B/RF(two years, $15 million). Clearly on the downside of his career but Merrifield hit .272 last season and stole 26 bases for the Blue Jays. He’s already being mentioned as a free agent target by the Sox and would fill a need at either second base or right field. Reuniting with Chris Getz and Pedro Grifol should also make for a nice landing for Merrifield. While he’s certainly not great (0.8 WAR in 2023) he’s better than any of the options currently on the roster at either position he plays. I see him more as a second baseman while the Sox wait to see if Oscar Colas can figure out how to play baseball because he’s not going anywhere soon. Merrifield can also bring some badly-needed leadership to this team of fools. It’s an upgrade from nothing.

Even though Chris Getz is in charge and not Kenny Williams and Rick Hahn, I have a feeling it’s going to be business as usual for the front office. Under the radar signings and hopes for bounce backs, I can see them signing players like Royals pitchers Brad Keller and Zack Greinke, a second baseman like Michael Chavis or Tony Kemp (of the Nationals and A’s, respectively; Kemp can also play the outfield), and a right fielder like Wil Myers (who hit .189 in 37 games for the Reds last season) and hoping they’ll bounce back to what they did five or six years ago. That rarely ever works. But it’s cheap!

TRADES

This is the hardest thing to try to forecast, because no one knows who is available or who could be traded for whom.

No. 1: Trade Eloy Jimenez to the Milwaukee Brewers for 3B/1B Luke Adams. Yes, Adams is not the Brewers’ top prospect (he ranks in the 20’s) but Sox fans always seem to massively overvalue the players and prospects in this organization. Jimenez is nothing special. He had one good fluke season in 2019 and it’s been all downhill since then. This will also free up about $13 million in payroll. Adams isn’t a great hitter (.245 in 371 MiLB at-bats) but he stole 30 bases in 2023 at Class A and had an OPS of .801. He can play first base or third base as well. Eloy would be the first guy out the door if I was trying to fix this mess (I guess I lied, Moncada would be the first guy out the door but there is no way anyone is going to take on that $24 million salary he’ll earn next season). Jimenez is an overrated bum who just doesn’t fit here anymore.

No. 2: Trade Tim Anderson to the Atlanta Braves for P Seth Keller and OF Isaiah Drake. The White Sox make this move after exercising TA’s $14M option for 2024. Some Sox fans may think TA has to be worth at least Ronald Acuna or Spencer Strider (I can literally see Southside Showdown suggesting a trade like that) but the fact is TA was one of the worst hitters and defensive players in the Major Leagues in 2023. That batting title was a long time ago, and so was the 20/20 season. TA had a -2.0 WAR and an OPS+ of 60 in 2023. So I’m looking at a couple of middling prospects with the Braves. Keller is intriguing as he’s known more for his off-speed pitches than his fastball and Drake is a known speedster with a good glove whose bat may take some time to develop. But I think that potential is worth one season of TA and the Braves could get the best of TA (a .300 average, 20+ home runs and stolen bases) when he’s on a team where he’s not expected to lead or be the face of the franchise. And if he can turn the clock back to 2019, he’d be an upgrade over current Braves shortstop Orlando Arcia..

As for what I think the Sox will do in the trade market, I think it will look a lot like previous years where they don’t have the guts to make any moves. They still talk about all the talent on this team, yet I don’t see it. I see a team with a cumulative 83 OPS+. I see a team that had only three offensive players with a WAR over 1.0 (and one of them, Jake Burger, is gone). I see a team that can’t run or hit, or steal bases and is rebuilding the pitching staff. But for whatever reason, people inside the organization think this team is just loaded with talent. The problem is that talent is all on paper.

SUMMARY

This would be my every day lineup: Sanchez (catcher), Vaughn/Gavin Sheets (1B), Merrifield/Lenyn Sosa/Jose Rodriguez (2B), Sosa/Rodriguez (SS), Moncada (3B), Andrew Benintendi (LF), Luis Robert (CF), Colas/Sheets/Merrifield (RF) and Sheets/Vaughn (DH). Zach Remillard would be my top utility player.

The pitching rotation: Cease, Giolito, Flaherty, Toussaint and Kopech.

The bullpen: Gregory Santos (closer), Bryan Shaw, Garrett Crochet, Aaron Bummer, Declan Cronin, Lane Ramsey, Matt Foster and Tanner Banks. I would also keep Kopech as a fifth starter/long reliever and hope he finally learns how to pitch.

I think the White Sox will sign four or five pitchers who no one has ever heard of to minor league deals, they’ll invite all the pitchers they acquired at the trade deadline to Spring Training and just hope they somehow manage to turn into MLB pitchers overnight and talk about all the talent that’s on this team.

So, here is what I see the Sox running out there every day:

Everyday lineup: Korey Lee (catcher), Vaughn (1B), Romy Gonzalez (2B), Anderson (SS), Moncada (3B), Benintendi (LF), Robert (CF), Sheets/Colas (RF) and Jimenez (DH). I do think there’s a chance the Sox will attempt to trade for Salvador Perez, but I think the Royals will overvalue him much like the Sox will overvalue TA in trade talks and nothing will come of it. I also would not be at all surprised if, when he gets absolutely no offers, Yasmani Grandal signs a minor league deal with the Sox and gets an invitation to Spring Training. The fact that they refused to designate him for assignment at any point during the season says they value him more than that big contract he signed in 2019 was worth.

The pitching rotation: Cease, Kopech, Toussaint, Jake Eder, Nick Nastrini.

The bullpen: Gregory Santos (closer), Garrett Crochet, Aaron Bummer, Declan Cronin, Lane Ramsey, Tanner Banks, Deivi Garcia and a dumpster dive free agent or two.

I can see my version of the 2024 White Sox finishing 80-82 if Giolito and Flaherty bounce back and Kopech learns how to pitch. They might even be within eight or 10 games of first place at some point in August. Sanchez and Merrifield could provide some badly needed leadership. I think Cease can bounce back from a lackluster season and maybe Colas will improve.

I see the real 2024 White Sox finishing 62-100, spending the season wondering why all this talent hasn’t evolved yet. Moncada will hit .220 and be hurt most of the year, Vaughn will be the same pedestrian hitter he’s been his entire career (if he hasn’t figured it out after almost 1,500 at bats I don’t know when he will). The pitching will struggle because they felt the need to rush youngsters who weren’t ready to fill out the rotation if they don’t sign the Royals castoffs, if they do the record may be worse.

Things may eventually start to look up once Moncada and the other massive drains on payroll are gone and the Sox could potentially do a legitimate reload in 2025 with all that available cash. I don’t want to pass judgment on the new front office yet, but the one thing that remains the same is Jerry Reinsdorf is the owner and I’m expecting a cut back on the payroll this year, which went from $196M in 2022 to $180M in 2023 and I’m imagining a $150M payroll in 2024. I’m not saying it’s impossible to win with a payroll like that; payroll doesn’t mean anything. The Sox lost over 100 games in 2023 with a massive payroll. There needs to be talent and this team doesn’t have much of that. So, we’ll see where things go from here..

Thank you for taking the time to read. Peace.

The End Of The Road: 33 Years As A Chicago White Sox Fan

Posted on August 29, 2023 by Jason J. Connor

This is a time that I never imagined coming, while at the same time not being at all surprised that it’s here.

Today is the day I’m walking away from the Chicago White Sox as a fan, and walking away from social media.

To say the White Sox have been my entire life for the past 19 years would not be even a small exaggeration. In and around 2004 I stopped watching the NFL, NBA, NASCAR, NHL and all college sports and focused exclusively on baseball and specifically, the White Sox. I gave up watching UCLA, West Virginia University, the Cleveland Browns, the Chicago Bulls and the Pittsburgh Penguins. I even stopped watching PGA Tour events at that time. I was strictly a White Sox guy.

I was rewarded for that the following year when the White Sox won the World Series for the first time since 1917.

Since then, not so much. Constant losing with the organization consistently being the laughingstock of professional sports. But things have gotten so much worse since the 2016 offseason. And I think I knew it was coming.

In late 2016 the White Sox began a rebuilding process that was going to make the team contenders from 2020 through at least 2025 with a consistency of contending yearly being the goal, according to general manager Rick Hahn at the time.

So, three losing seasons in a row (completely non-competitive, as compared to the slightly-more competitive years that proceeded the rebuild which generally lead to third or fourth-place finishes) lead to what was going to be the “contention window.” That “window” lasted two years, as the White Sox earned a Wild Card birth (2020) and a division title (2021).

The wheels started falling off LONG before that, however.

The first piece to fall off was the failed attempt at signing free agent shortstop Manny Machado in late 2018 and early 2019. It was deemed “too early” by the inept front office and they went on to sign aging catcher Yasmani Grandal the following offseason, who promptly fell flat on his ass, to a $73 million contract, a record at the time. Also signing was pitcher Dallas Keuchel, who was solid during the COVID shortened 2020 season and so bad after that he was designated for assignment.

Prior to the 2021 season the White Sox made a managerial move. After firing Rick Renteria, we all waited for the announcement that the White Sox were going to hire A.J. Hinch, the World Series winning manager who was available after being fired by the Houston Astros due to their sign-stealing scandal. But, alas, the White Sox managed to screw that up and instead hired retirement-home refugee Tony La Russa, who hadn’t managed in a decade and was completely out of touch.

So, everyone laughed at the White Sox. They managed to win 93 games and the AL Central title in 2021, La Russa’s first season back, they proceeded to go .500 (81-81) in his second season and he was relived of his duties for health reasons before the season ended. The front office told us that was just a blip on the radar and we’d be contending again in 2023.

Major changes were expected, and most of the staff was replaced by lifelong loser Pedro Grifol from the Kansas City Royals organization, a franchise with the worst winning percentage in baseball overall since the year 2000. The bottom then fell out of everything and the team (28 games under .500 as this is written) has not chance to contend now or in the next couple of years, despite playing in the worst division in baseball. And the front office that built this turd sandwich has been fired. With the rumor being that another “yes man,” minor league director Chris Getz, will be taking over as GM.

Nothing ever changes and being a White Sox fan has taken on a feeling of embarrassment and humiliation among the fan base, of which I strongly consider myself a member. But that is fading quickly and if Getz is, in fact, announced as the GM in the near future, I’ve made a decision that will drastically alter my life going forward and how I plan to spend my time.

The day that Getz is announced as GM, I will begin by closing my social media accounts, which are used for nothing but posting White Sox news and memes. I’ll be boxing up all of my White Sox memorabilia and may consider selling it. I’ll then move on to something else, most probably following college sports again, either with WVU or UCLA. That decision will come later, it’s not pressing at the moment. Thinking about it makes me happier than what I face as a White Sox fan.

I have enjoyed the past 33 years at times. I used to pitch outside in a White Sox jersey I made out of a plain black and white Nike jersey and a Sharpie and my Sox hat when I was in my early teens. Playing Frank Thomas Big Hurt Baseball on the PlayStation. The 2005 World Series and 2008 Blackout game. I took in two games at Sox Park in 2001, which will always be a lifetime highlight. But at this point, I just can’t justify continuing to follow an organization that keeps me awake at night. My dad and my girlfriend have both said I take it too seriously, and I’m definitely not going to argue that point.

Once I’ve closed my social media accounts and removed all the White Sox memorabilia and things from my sight, I’ll replace them, probably not all with sports but with other things I enjoy because I don’t ever want to get so deep into a sports team again that I’m losing sleep and not being able to eat with anxiety. It would be nice to watch college sports again, football once a week and basketball a couple of times a week and, if I start following WVU, actually attending games again.

One of my biggest issues with the White Sox over the past couple of years is just how unlikable this team is. Not just the front office goons who are finally gone, but the players. After Jose Abreu left, I realized there isn’t a single player on this team that I like, and that’s never happened before. The closest I can come to with this group is Andrew Benentendi. I’m not a big fan of his but the rest of these guys are just insufferable, lazy slobs. There’s nothing here to like. No reason to follow.

So, now I’m playing the waiting game. I’m continuing to watch this dumpster fire until a decision is made. I try to just forget it, because in the grand scheme of things it really doesn’t matter at all, but this has been my life for so long it’s hard to just walk away, it’s literally a thousand times worse than any break up I’ve ever been through. But I know there’s something better on the other side, whether it be a competent general manager, or, if it’s Chris Getz, a whole new world of college sports opening up to me. So I’ll be fine either way. I just hope a decision is made at some point in the near future.

Thank you for reading. Peace.

THE 2023 CHICAGO WHITE SOX: AT THE TRADE DEADLINE

Posted on July 24, 2023 by Jason J. Connor

I think at this point, it’s safe to say the Chicago White Sox 2017-19 rebuild has not exactly gone to plan. Rick Hahn has gone from the guy other teams wanted to hire in 2012, when he was the assistant general manager to Kenny Williams, to a guy who will likely never work in baseball again once his employment ends with the White Sox, which is a point in time that is unknown to anyone except Rick, I assume.

I was a fan of the concept of the rebuild, trade the mental midget Chris Sale, average left-handed starter Jose Quintana and borderline retard Adam Eaton in exchange for a haul of minor league talent, supplement that with some established superstars and draft well. I guess the organization accomplished one out of three.

Or maybe not.

The return for Sale, Quintana and Eaton has been OK at times (Eloy Jimenez hitting 31 home runs in 2019, Dylan Cease winning 14 games in 2022, Yoan Moncada hitting .315 in 2019) and not OK at other times (Jimenez and Moncada never playing 150 games in a season due to an endless string of injuries, Michael Kopech and Reynaldo Lopez never finding any consistency). Taken on a player-by-player, season-by-season perspective, each player (including this year’s breakout star, Luis Robert, Jr.) no one from this group of late 2010s prospects has had more than one outstanding season.

So the trades didn’t work out as expected. How about the established superstar free agent signings?

Manny Machado made the White Sox the laughingstock of Major League Baseball, helped along by Kenny Williams announcing that Machado could have made $350 million with the Sox but that they could not afford to pay him $300 million. The team didn’t even bother to try to sign Bryce Harper, which would have instantly fixed two nagging problems the team has had for years: Someone to play right field and left-handed power. The “Machado Money” was then blown on contract extensions for Moncada, Jimenez and Robert, along with blowing a wad on lackluster free agents Yasmani Grandal and Dallas Keuchel. No true superstar was ever signed, despite it being a pretty well-known fact that Harper wanted to play for the Sox.

OK, the free agent signings didn’t work out as expected. How about the draft picks?

There are few organizations worse at drafting all time than the White Sox. Other than the freak late 1980s and the early 1990s (when four straight first round picks became stars; Jack McDowell, Robin Ventura, Frank Thomas and Alex Fernandez) this team has drafted what amounts to horse manure basically every other season since the draft was first instituted in 1965, getting an occasional gem (Harold Baines in 1977, Tim Anderson in 2013) but usually settling for less-than-good. That was especially true heading into the rebuild.

Starting in 2015, the White Sox first round draft picks have included Carson Fulmer (2015, no longer with the club), Zack Collins and Zack Burdi (2016, no longer with the club), Jake Burger (2017, holding down third base until Moncada’s contract is back from an injury rehab stint at AAA), Nick Madrigal (2018, no longer with the club), Andrew Vaughn (2019, the next “breakout star” of 2023 who’s hitting around .240 and currently injured but not on the IL for some reason I’ve not figured out) and Garrett Crochet (2020, injured after having Tommy John Surgery in 2022). Seven top draft picks and one is contributing at this moment.

(Some fan boy is going to read this and have an aneurysm because Vaughn is on pace for 85 RBI, but he’s also carrying a 102 OPS+ (which means he’s literally replacement level) and a 0.4 WAR).

Well, the draft hasn’t worked out, either. Which means this entire rebuild has been a complete exercise in futility. And to be honest, this is EVERYONE’S fault who is involved from the ownership to the front office to the players to the trainers. And if I could blame Jason Benetti, believe me, I would.

How Ownership Is At Fault

While I applaud Jerry Reinsdorf for spending nearly $200 million on the payroll in 2022 and over $180 million in payroll in 2023, his decision not to sign a top of the line superstar like Machado or Harper means the Sox rebuild was never completely finished, as Rick Hahn told the press that signing a player like that (not Dallas Keuchel or Yasmani Grandal or Andrew Benintendi) was part of the rebuild as a whole. There’s no superstar on this team. Some fan boy will take exception and say “wHaT aBoUt LuIs RoBeRt Jr?” to which I’ll say “let me see him play 150 games this year and 150 games next year and then we’ll talk. I’ve already been fooled by one-year flashes in the pan by Moncada and Jimenez and Cease. I’m not getting fooled again. Now, the rumor making the rounds is once Lucas Giolito and Yaz and the rest of the expiring contracts are off the books, payroll will be making a similar drop, so reinforcements are definitely NOT on the way.

Also, Jerry is directly at fault for the hiring of Tony La Russa as manager in 2020, which was a ridiculous move that everyone except Jerry knew was going to be a disaster of epic proportions.

How The Front Office Is At Fault

Rick Hahn has been the general manager of the White Sox since October 2012, and has exactly two winning seasons to show for his “work.” While I give Reinsdorf credit for opening his wallet, I have to give Hahn his due as well, he doesn’t know how to spend money. Just in the rebuild era, Hahn has blown $70+ million on an old catcher, a left fielder who has no power to speak of and an extension for a third baseman who, in almost 700 career games, has an OPS+ of 105. Over $40 million spent on Eloy Jimenez (who can hit but can’t stay on the field, the only time he played 100+ games in a season was his rookie year of 2019). Over $50 million spent on Dallas Keuchel (who compiled a 17-16 record with a 4.79 ERA and a 91 ERA+ in 3 years with the Sox before being designated for assignment in 2022).

And while Rick Hahn certainly didn’t want Tony La Russa as the manager, Hahn’s selection has turned out to be even worse.

Pedro Grifol had spent years on the Kansas City Royals staff, but when the Royals wanted to hire a new manager, they went outside the organization. That would have told most people that there was a problem, but not Rick Hahn. Grifol has been completely over-matched and under-prepared, and looks like a complete buffoon when talking to the media, as after a recent sweep at the hands of the Minnesota Twins, Grifol doubled down on multiple questionable decisions and basically announced that he knows what he’s doing and the press is basically being insubordinate if they question his decisions.

You’re 41-60, Pedro. You clearly don’t have the answers about anything.

How The Players Are At Fault

I’ve been watching baseball for well over 30 years and this is the most unlikable team I’ve ever seen. I know a lot of people disliked the Yankees of the late 1990s and early 2000s, but they weren’t an unlikable team, that was mostly professional jealousy over a team that was dominating. The 2022-23 White Sox have been a team that is just full of players I generally dislike. Lazy, unprepared, constantly injured, performing poorly, all while making a LOT of money. The money part is the fault of the front office for handing out contracts to guys who would now be making half or a third (or in Moncada’s case, probably 1/5) of their current salaries.

There’s nothing “fun” about this team. It’s torturous to watch. It’s worse than the mid-1990s Pittsburgh Pirates teams that I used to watch. With them, at least there was something fun to see. Maybe that’s because they were expected to lose and played loose. Something this team should do next year since they’re not going anywhere and have nothing to lose. I certainly hope they will.

Rumors are flying that the Sox are “open for business” at the trade deadline. I see people on different comment sections as well as Facebook and Twitter who can’t wait to see the White Sox pull off six or seven trades. I’m absolutely convinced that’s not going to happen. That would mean a full rebuild. Again. Just based on the players who will be leaving as free agents after the season, Giolito is a definite goner, Lance Lynn and Mike Clevinger have team options that will absolutely be declined, several relievers are free agents, Yaz and Elvis Andrus are free agents as well. Tim Anderson has one team option remaining on his deal.

If the Sox were to trade everyone I’ve heard mentioned as a trade candidate, they would be unable to field a Major League team. And with Reinsdorf expected to cut the payroll, they can’t fill those holes with free agents this offseason. So from what I’ve seen, I would expect Giolito to be traded, maybe Lance Lynn and then this offseason the White Sox can find a pitcher like Brad Keller of the Royals who is down on his luck and may be willing to take a deal looking for a bounce back (not that Keller has ever been that good that he has anything to bounce back to, I’m just saying). In other words, I think the White Sox are going to run this same group back out again in 2024 minus a couple of starters and relievers and Yaz and try to “compete” with this core they bought and are stuck with. Because, honestly, I don’t know what else they CAN do.

I’ve never seen a team that was as hamstrung as this organization is right now.

There’s very little Major League talent to move that would bring a good return. So a rebuild like began in 2016 is out of the question. They’re stuck with guys like Moncada until after next season and Jimenez until 2026. I think Luis Robert will have the same regression every other prospect has had in 2024. You can’t draft your way out of this situation. If the Royals weren’t in the opening stages of a rebuild themselves the Sox would be in last place right now; in fact, they’re as close to the Royals as they are the Twins at this point (13 games ahead of the last-place Royals and 12 games behind the first place Twins).

It’s a sad state of affairs and I’m looking forward to seeing how Hahn and the rest of this clown show handles the situation at the trade deadline. We have eight days to wait…

Thank you for reading. Peace.

Talkin’ Baseball: My Take On The Sox Machine 2022-23 Offseason Plan Project

Posted on October 29, 2022 by Jason J. Connor

This is going to be a difficult season for the White Sox, possibly worse than 2022. The lack of talent, health, depth and camaraderie are going to sink the team for the remainder of the “contention window.” This team was poorly built and too many players were paid before they had actually accomplished anything, thus we have a roster full of overpaid bums who can’t stay healthy and have no reason to try.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

Lucas Giolito: $10.8M (tender, I think the Sox will tender)

Dylan Cease: $5.3M (the Sox will tender, I would tender and try to work on an extension)

Reynaldo Lopez: $3.3M (tender, I think the Sox will tender)

Adam Engel: $2.3M (non-tender, I think the Sox will non-tender)

Michael Kopech: $2.2M (tender, I think the Sox will tender)

Kyle Crick: $1.5M (non-tender, I think the Sox will non-tender)

Jose Ruiz: $1M (non-tender, the Sox are in love with him and will tender)

Danny Mendick: $1M (tender, I think the Sox will tender)

CLUB OPTIONS

Tim Anderson: $12.5M ($1M buyout) (pick up, I would trade if possible, I think the Sox will pick up)

Josh Harrison: $5.625M ($1.5M buyout) (buyout, I think the Sox will tender due to lack of options)

PLAYER OPTIONS

AJ Pollock: $13M ($5 million buyout) (No way he leaves $13 million on the table, exercise option)

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

Jose Abreu (Made $18M in 2021) (resign, 2 years for $20 million, I think the Sox let him walk)

Johnny Cueto ($4.2M) (let him walk, I think the Sox let him walk)

Vince Velasquez ($3M) (let him walk, I think the Sox let him walk)

Elvis Andrus ($14.25M) (let him walk, I think the Sox let him walk)

MANAGER

My pick: Ozzie Guillen. You want a manager with a successful body of work and championship pedigree? Here he is. You want a guy who knows it’s his final chance and wants to right his previous wrongs? Here he is. I don’t want to hear about what happened in 2011, that’s ancient history. This is 2022.

The Sox pick: Mike Shildt. I know this guy has cooled down considerably as a candidate but here is my rationale: Kenny Williams wants Ron Washington. Rick Hahn wants Joe Espada. I think Tony La Russa will have Jerry Reisndorf’s ear and like the last time the White Sox hired a manager, Jerry gets the final say.

FREE AGENTS

No. 1: Jose Abreu (two years, $20 million). You just don’t let the face of the franchise walk away because you have some kid who was a high draft pick waiting to take his spot. Mark my words, Andrew Vaughn will be more Greg Walker than Jose Abreu or Paul Konerko when all is said and done.

No. 2: Willson Contreras (two years, $32 million). I’m not a huge fan of this signing, but something has to be done. Can’t go into another season with Yasmani Grandal at the top of the depth chart. Let Contreras do the bulk of the catching through the remainder of the contention window, and he can still sign another free agent deal after the 2024 season as a 33-year old.

No. 3: Adam Frazier (one year, $7 million). Frazier is coming off his worst season and should be had for a small amount. He set full-season career lows in just about every category (.238/.301/.311 line with an OPS+ of 80 and a 0.7 WAR) but he plays every day (156 games in 2022 with the Mariners) and his defense is certainly passable (6 errors in 435 chances at second base in 2022). It’s an upgrade from nothing.

As for what I think the White Sox will do in free agency, I see a couple of low-end fifth starter candidates on minor league deals (someone like Jordan Lyles or Michael Pineda), a fourth or fifth outfielder to replace Adam Engel (Ben Gamel? Jackie Bradley? Chad Pinder?). Other than that, and maybe a flier on a bullpen arm or two for “depth,” I don’t see the Sox making any free agent signings. The roster is full.

TRADES

This is the hardest thing to try to forecast, because no one knows who is available or who could be traded for whom.

No. 1: Trade Yoan Moncada and Colson Montgomery to the Seattle Mariners for Eugenio Suarez and Jarred Kelenic. Yes, it’s giving up the Sox #1 prospect and not getting a ton in return but it’s not a straight salary dump and Suarez fills in third base for the remainder of the contention window and Kelenic isn’t the superstar prospect he was two years ago. This opens up some salary room for the White Sox and eliminates one of the team’s biggest issues, and if Kelenic can outplay Gavin Sheets in RF, you could have a solid OF lineup for years (Kelenic, Luis Robert and Oscar Colas) after the contention window closes.

No. 2: Trade Leury Garcia and Bryan Ramos to the Oakland A’s for Tony Kemp. The A’s take on a little extra salary (Kemp is expected to make around $3.2 million in arbitration this season while Garcia will make a little over $5 million in the second year of his three-year deal) in order to pick up a decent prospect in Ramos and the Sox get their replacement for Garcia. Seems like a win/win trade to me.

No. 3: Trade Yasmani Grandal to any team that will take him for any price they’ll pay, and agree to pay half of his salary. Straight salary dump, find some team that could use an occasional switch hitter at the DH position and could be a once-a-week or even emergency catcher, for $9 million. Trade him for some team’s 50^th ranked prospect. Anything to get him off the payroll and out of the organization.

As for what I think the Sox will do in the trade market, I think they’ll strongly consider trading Gavin Sheets (likely to the Orioles in a nice homecoming) because he is still a man without a position (he’s a 1B/DH and those spots are filled) and I think they could get a minor league pitching prospect in return, maybe a future piece for the back end of the rotation. I don’t think the front office has the balls to really move a Moncada or an Eloy Jimenez or a Lucas Giolito for anything.

SUMMARY

This would be my every day lineup: Contreras (catcher), Abreu (1B), Frazier (2B), Anderson (SS), Suarez (3B), Pollock (LF), Robert (CF), Kelenic (RF) and Jimenez (DH). Kemp would be my top utility player. For those wondering, I’d either trade Andrew Vaughn or just let him play 1B or DH when Abreu or Eloy need a day off. Remember, he’s making the MLB minimum. At best he’s a .280/20/80 hitter, he’s not the second coming of Frank Thomas.

The pitching rotation: Cease, Lance Lynn, Kopech, Giolito and Davis Martin.

The bullpen: Liam Hendriks (closer), Reynaldo Lopez, Kendall Graveman, Joe Kelly, Tanner Banks, Aaron Bummer and Jake Diekman.

I think the White Sox will try to find someone/anyone to be their fifth starter because they have absolutely no faith in their own homegrown pitchers (Cease came from the Cubs, Lynn from the Rangers, Kopech from the Red Sox and Giolito from the Nationals; Banks and Bummer are the only homegrown relievers), and they’ll sign a guy who is looking to rebound (like Johnny Cueto in 2022 or Ervin Santana in 2019, just showing the extremes of how those kinds of deals can work out).

So, here is what I see the Sox running out there every day:

Everyday lineup: Grandal (catcher), Vaughn (1B), Harrison/Leury (2B), Anderson (SS), Moncada (3B), Pollock (LF), Robert (CF), Sheets/Colas (RF) and Jimenez (DH). Leury will be the top utility player but Danny Mendick is going to get a good look after a solid (but short) 2022 season (.289/.343/.443, OPS+ of 121 and 0.5 WAR in only 97 at-bats).

I can see my version of the 2023 White Sox finishing 85-77, thanks to the power provided by Contreras, Suarez and Kelenic to push a few more runs across the plate. The pitching was middle-of-the-pack and I expect Cease and Kopech to get better, so I think “my” 2023 White Sox could finish second to the Guardians (again) but maybe a little closer (five or six games out).

I see the real 2023 White Sox finishing 79-83, spending the season wondering if Vaughn or Moncada or Robert is going to break out, if they can get anything close to a positive WAR out of second base and hoping Colas finally fills the hole in RF that’s basically been there since Jermaine Dye left. This is not a good team, and removing the best player (Abreu lead the team in WAR, games played, hits and batting average, period) isn’t going to make the offense better, and if you believe that, you’re a moron.

Things may eventually start to look up once Grandal and Moncada and Giolito and Hendriks and the other massive drains on payroll are gone and the Sox could potentially do a legitimate reload in 2025 with all that available cash. However, I have absolutely no faith in this front office. Luckily, as Rick Hahn said, they know when they’re not doing the job anymore so once the guy who has had 2 winning seasons out of 10 as a general manager figures out he can’t do the job, it will get better.

Thank you for taking the time to read. Peace.

2022 Chicago White Sox Season Review

Posted on October 5, 2022 by Jason J. Connor

Like last year, I’m posting my season review immediately after the final game so the emotion remains and the fact that I’m beyond annoyed with this franchise isn’t lost on anyone.

I’ve been a fan of the White Sox since 1991. This was, without question, the most aggravating, disappointing and rage-inducing season of my life. A few seasons have been close (1994 due to the player’s strike, 1995 due to the Sox pitching staff completely imploding, definitely 2018 when the Sox bottomed out during the rebuild with a 62-100 record) but nothing was this bad.

For a team with a short contention window (which is generally accepted to be ending after the 2024 season) the fact that the White Sox wasted two years of contention with Tony LaRussa managing the team is unforgivable. Last year, I said the team won in spite of TLR, and in 2022 they couldn’t overcome whatever negative cloud TLR brought back to the organization.

I’ll begin my player review with the offense. And it was not good. Only one player managed to play 140 games this season, and only one player managed to attain a WAR over 2.2, the heart and soul of the White Sox, Jose Abreu, who played 157 games with a 4.2 WAR. The only other player with a WAR over 2.0 was Luis Robert, in 98 games. Truly a pathetic performance.

TEAM LEADERS: OFFENSE

Games: Jose Abreu (157)
Hits: Jose Abreu (183)
Doubles: Jose Abreu (40)
Triples: Josh Harrison (2)
Home Runs: Andrew Vaughn (17)
RBI: Andrew Vaughn (76)
Stolen Bases: Adam Engel (12)
Walks: Jose Abreu (62)
Batting Average: Jose Abreu (.304)
OPS+: Eloy Jimenez (140)
WAR: Jose Abreu (4.2)

It was really a very sad season for the White Sox offense. It was the first time since 1990 that the White Sox offense was this bad. That year, Carlton Fisk lead the team in home runs (18) and the team leader in RBI was the late Ivan Calderon (74). That team, amazingly, finished the year in 2nd place with a 94-68 record, a game better than the 2021 AL Central champion White Sox. That was due to exceptional pitching, as the team had two 14-game winners, a 13-game winner, a 12-game winner and an 11-game winner in the bullpen, not to mention Bobby Thigpen and his (at the time) record of 57 saves.

Speaking of pitching, the 2022 White Sox pitching staff didn’t set the world on fire, but it was solid enough that they should have finished in a better position than 81-81. Dylan Cease had his breakout season, but no one else showed any level of superiority in the rotation, though a couple of names did stand out in the bullpen; Reynaldo Lopez and Jimmy Lambert.

Let’s take a look at the White Sox pitching leaders in 2022.

TEAM LEADERS: PITCHING

Games: Kendall Graveman (55)
Starts: Dylan Cease (32)
Innings Pitched: Dylan Cease (184)
Wins: Dylan Cease (14)
Losses: Johnny Cueto (10)
Strikeouts: Dylan Cease (227; incredibly, 50 more strikeouts than the 2nd place finisher)
Walks: Dylan Cease (78)
Shutouts: Dylan Cease (1)
Saves: Liam Hendriks (37)
ERA+: Dylan Cease (180)
WHIP: Reynaldo Lopez (0.949)
WAR: Dylan Cease (6.4)

*special mention to Johnny Cueto who finished third on the team in WAR with a 3.4 despite a losing record.

The pitching staff certainly was not as good as the 1990 staff, or the 1993 staff or 1994 or 1983 or 2005 but it also didn’t get the ending it deserved.

I don’t want to bring in a lot of other outside influences into my review, but this will be forever looked at as the worst White Sox season I have ever endured and some of that is due to some outside influences that are not necessarily directly related to the team, but are related to the city. So that’s why I’m keeping my review somewhat short and, dare I say, “sanitized.”

In closing, I can say this was basically the second wasted season in a row of this “contention window,” and with a $190+ million payroll in 2022 (and not a lot coming off and a lot of players getting hefty raises next season due to either long-term contracts or through salary arbitration) there won’t be much wiggle room unless the team is able to unload one of the bigger contracts that’s on the books for next season, especially the dead weight (Yoan Moncada and Yasmani Grandal who will both be making in the neighborhood of $17 to $18 million for minimal production).

I’m hoping this will be a fun offseason, beginning with the search for a new manager and hopefully some improvement to the roster. Time will tell. I’ll go more in-depth when I post my Sox Machine 2022-23 Offseason Plan Project blog entry, which I usually drop around mid-November. By that point, I’m assuming the team will have named a manager and we’ll have some idea what direction the team is going, especially in regard to Jose Abreu.

Thank you for taking the time to read.

My Take On The Sox Machine 2021-22 Offseason Plan Project

Posted on November 16, 2021 by Jason J. Connor

Every year the Sox Machine blog posts a template for what is known as the “offseason plan project,” where anyone can give their thoughts on what they would like the White Sox to do in the offseason, in terms of whether to tender or non-tender eligible players, sign or not sign pending free agents, propose trades and things like that.

Rather than filling it out and posting on their blog I just decided to pinch their template and fill it out myself, which will make my offseason plans blog a lot easier to follow along with. I don’t want this to end up being 5,000 words like my last entry. And I need to point out, this isn’t what I think the team is going to do, this is what I would do.

I did this last year as well, and was horribly wrong with all of my predictions, so we’ll see how it flies this year. I think things are a little more “defined” this year with the roster so there won’t be a lot of changes except in the bullpen and at second base.

So, here we go.

PREAMBLE

The White Sox are still the class of the AL Central, though the Detroit Tigers are closing the gap and closing it fast, especially with their young pitching. I still see the White Sox winning the division by at least five games, however.

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

The number after the player name is what MLB Trade Rumors projects the player will receive in arbitration.

Lucas Giolito: $7.9M – Tender. This is a textbook example of a “no-brainer.” Lance Lynn, Giolito and Dylan Cease are the backbone of the rotation.

Reynaldo Lopez: $2.8 – Tender. He did a great job in the spot I said three years ago he was made for, a long reliever and spot starter. Now that “bullpen games” are a thing, it’s nice to have a former full-time starter in that spot.

Evan Marshall: $2.3M – Non-tender. Some people say bring him back on a Minor League deal since he’s about to have Tommy John Surgery. I say don’t bother, thanks for the help the past few years but it’s time for you to move along.

Brian Goodwin: $1.7M – Non-tender. I like Goodwin alright but at this point he would be a fifth or sixth outfielder and I don’t see that being worth $1.7 million.

Jimmy Cordero: $1.2M – Non-tender. This guy’s career was nearly ruined by Ricky Renteria, but he’s not worth $1.2 million at this point. I would extend a Minor League deal and an invitation to Spring Training, however.

Adam Engel: $2.2M – Tender. Last season I wanted to see Engel start full time in right field, but the Sox brain trust decided that signing Adam Eaton was the answer. I said that wasn’t a good idea, come to find out it wasn’t a good idea. I do like the idea of bringing back Engel but just as a fourth outfielder, pinch hitter and pinch runner.

Jace Fry: $1M – Non-tender. This guy has pitched in 162 games at the Major League level. He has a career ERA of 5.04. He shouldn’t be anywhere near a million dollar salary.

CLUB OPTIONS

Write “pick up” or “decline” or “rework” after the option. These were already announced but I’m giving my theory behind what I would have done had I been in charge.

Craig Kimbrel: $16M – Pick Up. Yes, he sucked with the White Sox but lights-out closers don’t grow on trees and he’ll be worth something to someone, a team that’s smart enough to use him where he’s comfortable, not as a set-up man. The Sox won’t get a return anywhere near what they paid, but getting anything back at all is a bird in the hand.

Cesar Hernandez: $6M – Pick Up. Yes, he sucked with the White Sox (is there an echo in here?) but given his salary and the lack of good available second basemen, I’d absolutely have brought him back and given him a chance to make us forget 2021.

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

Try to retain, or let go?

Leury Garcia (Made $3.5 million in 2021) – Resign – I would bring Leury back at the right price, as insurance at second base and as my main utility player. Having said that, he would NOT play every day or even close to that. Once or twice a week, unless he’s filling in for someone injured.

Carlos Rodon (Made $3M in 2021) – Let Go – So long, Carlos. His inability to stay healthy for a full season in seven years is not lost on anyone, and the idea of him getting a three or four-year deal in this economic climate in baseball is a joke. He’ll get a one-year “prove you can stay healthy just once” deal and I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t get another one-year deal for 2023, or maybe a one-year deal with a club option or vesting options if he pitches a certain number of innings.

Billy Hamilton (Made $1M in 2021) – Resign – I like the idea of bringing Billy back as a fifth or sixth outfielder because there is no one equal with the glove or the speed that he can bring to the roster. I wouldn’t want to see him starting for an extended period but he definitely has a place on the roster.

Ryan Tepera (Made $950,000 in 2021) – Resign – He was absolutely lights out with the Sox in 2021 (and with the Cubs, as well) but he’s going to make up for his paltry salary. Given the lack of arms in the White Sox bullpen right now, I would offer Tepera a two-year deal for $8 million as a starting point and be willing to go two-years for $12 million at most.FREE AGENTS

List three free-agent targets you’d pursue during the offseason, with a reasonable contract.

Ryan Tepera (White Sox relief pitcher) – For the reasons mentioned above. There are few better relief arms available on the market and the White Sox bullpen has been decimated. Hold on to one of the best. Two years, $8 million.

Leury Garcia (White Sox IF/OF) – As I said above, I don’t want to see Leury on the field every day unless there’s an injury. He’s the longest-tenured player on the team and deserves to see it through. He can also play any position on the diamond except first base and catcher and play them well. His bat isn’t gonna win a Silver Slugger anytime soon, but it’s far superior to Danny Mendick and years of experience counts for something too. He’s also go the hottest wife in the organization but that’s neither here nor there. Two-years, $8 million.

Collin McHugh (Rays relief pitcher) – I acquired this guy in 2020 on MLB The Show because (a) he’s got a career ERA under 3.80 and is 20 games over .500, (b) in 37 games last year, including 7 starts, he had a 1.55 ERA and (c) he was born in Naperville. This is the guy you want in your bullpen as a contender, not Jose Ruiz.

TRADES

Propose trades that you think sound reasonable for both sides, and the rationale behind them.

Dallas Keuchel and $10 million to whatever team will take him for whatever they’ll offer. Some of you will no doubt think I’m crazy but I didn’t realize until just a few days ago that Dallas Keuchel does NOT have a mutual option in his contract, he has a VESTING option: If he pitches 160 innings in 2022, he will then be under contract in 2023 for $20 million. If you think there’s NO chance of that happening, he pitched 162 innings in 2021. Get a Minor League player who ranks between 15-20 on his club and get this guy out of town, fast.

Yoan Moncada to the Seattle Mariners for one of their Minor League outfielders. The Mariners are loaded with top-shelf Minor League outfielders and their starting third baseman for the past decade, Kyle Seager, is a free agent. While I’m a fan of Moncada, his salary more than doubles in 2022 (from $6 million to $13 million) and tops off in 2024 at $24 million. For that kind of money, I’d like more than .263/14/61 and 157 strikeouts. This will also give some payroll relief going forward. I’d give Jake Burger every opportunity to take over at third base, even if that means hitting him in the 9^th spot in the order and letting him work through whatever issues he’ll have, just like the Sox did with Robin Ventura over 20 years ago. Robin had an 0-41 streak at one point during his rookie season but they didn’t lose faith and he became one of the best third basemen in franchise history.

Craig Kimbrel to the Philadelphia Phillies for MiLB IF Logan Simmons and LHP Kyle Dohy. These two are not top prospects for the Phillies but given Kimbrel’s poor two months with the White Sox, it’s definitely not a bad return. Dohy made it to the Phillies last season after a tough year at AAA but you can always find room for a LHP in the bullpen. Simmons is more of a long-term flier, he can play second, short and third and he’s only 21 years old, showing good power (21 home runs in 413 career Minor League at-bats) and speed 14 stolen bases). He won’t help now, but when the next rebuild begins in 2024 or 2025, he could be a good piece to have on hand.

SUMMARY

My lineup will consist of Yasmani Grandal at catcher, Jose Abreu at first, Cesar Hernandez at second, Tim Anderson at shortstop and Jake Burger at third, with Eloy Jimenez in left, Luis Robert in center and Andrew Vaughn and Gavin Sheets platooning in right. Vaughn and Sheets would also split the DH role with whoever needs a day off. The bench will consist of Zack Collins, Leury Garcia, Adam Engel, Billy Hamilton and a couple of current minor leaguers as depth pieces.

My rotation would consist of Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech and Jimmy Lambert, with a mix of Reynaldo Lopez and Garret Crochet handling long relief and spot starts. Aaron Bummer and Ryan Burr handling set-up duties with Liam Hendriks closing. The rest of the bullpen would consist of Tepera, McHugh, Matt Foster and whatever Minor League arms have a good Spring Training, possibly Jimmy Cordero.

I know the fan boys are going to hate this, because I’m sure they’re sitting with their phones right now just waiting to hear that the White Sox signed Marcus Semien to play second base and Nick Castellanos or Michael Conforto to play right field. I absolutely guarantee none of those moves are going to happen. The payroll currently sits around $140 million, and that’s before those arbitration numbers are figured in.

This is why I think now is a good time to try moving some excess payroll. Moncada is not so dynamic that he’s worth the money he’s going to be making the next three seasons, Keuchel could be making $38 million over the next two seasons (and definitely making $18 million in 2022). Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert are also due raises each year for the next few years as well, and the White Sox only have control over Lucas Giolito until 2024.

I’d love to see the White Sox just go balls out with a $200 million payroll but that has never happened and it’s never going to happen, at least not this decade. So if you’re looking for free agents, don’t look for the $200 or $300 million deals, look for the one-year or two-year deals for under $20 million to fill in the holes. The rebuild is over, for now.

And for everyone who wants to crucify me every year for saying the Sox aren’t signing any $100 million free agents, just remember that they never have, even when they had the payroll flexibility to do so. And by 2024, this team, just as it is now, will have an astronomical payroll, and at that point, a new rebuild will begin. So hopefully, over the next couple of years, the White Sox can get to (and win) a World Series. They have the talent.

Thank you for reading, and God bless.

2021 Chicago White Sox Season Review

Posted on October 12, 2021 by Jason J. Connor

I decided that this year I would do an immediate review of the Chicago White Sox season rather than waiting and letting things settle down and taking emotion out of the equation. I wanted to allow myself some feelings in the review instead of being so academic about it. So, immediately following the White Sox ALDS Game Four loss to the Astros, I went to work.

Looking at the big picture, it was a reasonably successful season for the White Sox. A 93-69 record and the American League Central Division title was almost expected, but winning the division by 13 games was not. The Sox were the only AL Central team with a record over .500 and the Minnesota Twins, two-time defending champions, bottomed out with a 73-89 record and a last-place finish. On the surface, it was a dominating performance by the Sox.

But if you look a little closer, you see just how much of a down year it was for the division. The Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals are embarking on rebuilds, the Twins just imploded and the Cleveland Indians were unable to overcome injuries to their starting rotation. And the White Sox, in general, feasted on their division rivals. They were not as good against teams over .500 and that was a known issue when the team headed into the playoffs.

Manager Tony La Russa was a surprise, as much as a Hall of Fame manager can surprise, as a lot of fans thought he would be a poor fit with the team. That was not the case and he had an exceptionally good season, and should finish in the top two for AL Manager of the Year. I hope he’ll be back in 2022 because the options to replace him do not instill much confidence.

The lineup was expected to be a juggernaut and fell well short of expectations. Part of this, of course, was due to injury, as RF Eloy Jimenez, C Yasmani Grandal and CF Luis Robert all spent extensive stretches on the injured list. White Grandal and Robert seemed to catch fire after they returned, Jimenez seemed lost after his return from the IL. Shortstop Tim Anderson and OF Adam Engel also spent time on the IL and injuries were a year-long issue for the franchise.

Among the players who were able to remain healthy, 3B Yoan Moncada saw his numbers take a precipitous drop from 2019 (.315 with 25 home runs and 79 RBI in 149 games in 2019 compared to .263 with 14 home runs and 61 RBI in 144 games in 2021). First baseman Jose Abreu put up extremely similar power numbers (33 home runs and 123 RBI in 2019 with 30 home runs and 117 RBI in 2021) but saw his batting average lose more than 20 points.

The pitching staff was supposed to be one of the league’s best and fell far short, both the starting rotation and the bullpen. Lucas Giolito was an early season Cy Young favorite and finished the year with an 11-9 record and a 3.53 ERA, while Dallas Keuchel completely fell off, with a 9-9 record and an unsightly 5.28 ERA. Lance Lynn and Carlos Rodon both had solid seasons but injuries were an issue, leaving Dylan Cease (13 wins and 226 strikeouts in 165 innings) as the de facto ace, with Jimmy Lambert being the only legit minor league option.

The White Sox bullpen carried the team at times, as closer Liam Hendriks lead the American League in saves (38) despite giving up more home runs (11) than walks (7). The trade deadline move for All Star closer Craig Kimbrel was a complete and total bust, as Kimbrel’s splits between the Cubs (0.49 ERA, 64 strikeouts, 13 walks) and White Sox (5.09 ERA, 36 strikeouts, 10 walks) were shocking. Future starters Michael Kopech and Garrett Crochet were solid but their time in the bullpen should end, if not next season by 2023 at the latest.

The future, however, isn’t as bright as the fan boys would have you think.

No, I’m not expecting a Twins-style fall-off. The Sox will still be contenders. But there are problems and they are significant. For starters, the Sox are going to be looking for a right fielder for the third straight season. The White Sox tried a committee in 2019 after letting Avisail Garcia leave, then brought in Nomar Mazara in 2020 and Adam Eaton in 2021, all small-minded moves made on a budget and all failed miserably and the hole still remains.

Second base is also a question mark now with the trade of former first round pick Nick Madrigal to the Cubs in the Kimbrel deal and the deadline acquisition of Cesar Hernandez from the Indians, though Hernandez hit only .232 (compared to his .270 career average) with three home runs in 53 games. Hernandez has a $6 million club option for 2022 and may return anyway despite his lackluster season due to lack of options and his reasonable salary. Which brings me to the biggest issue this offseason: The payroll.

As of this moment, the White Sox 2022 payroll stands at $141 million, an astronomical sum for this club, and not counting potential free agents or any players with club options, like Hernandez and Kimbrel (for the record, Kimbrel’s option is valued at $16 million). Many of the players the club signed in previous years to long-term extensions are due for large raises, not the least of which is Moncada, who will go from making $6 million in 2021 to $13 million in 2022. Jimenez and Robert will both see their salaries double and Tim Anderson is set to get a $2 million raise. Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez should both expect raises as well.

Adding those numbers to the big salaries for Abreu, Lynn, Grandal and the basically-worthless Keuchel (all of whom are scheduled to make more than $18 million in 2022) will absolutely handcuff the White Sox when it comes to potential free agent upgrades.

The fact is, the 2021-22 free agent class isn’t exactly outstanding, other than the shortstop class, which the Sox have no use for. Second base and right field, the spots the White Sox need help the most, are generally weak, minus second baseman Marcus Semien who should easily score $20 million annually in free agency and right fielder Nick Castellanos, who can opt out of the remaining two years and $34 million on his contract with the Cincinnati Reds. There is no way the White Sox can afford to sign top-shelf talent with the current payroll situation, so they’ll likely continue to do bargain bin shopping and hope to catch lightning in a bottle.

It’s also only going to get worse as by 2024 Moncada will be earning $24 million, and Jimenez and Robert will hit the $10 million mark by 2023. The payroll will be completely out of control by 2023 and at that point I expect a tear down and likely anyone on the roster besides Robert and youngsters like Andrew Vaughn and Gavin Sheets and Kopech and Crochet is likely to be traded for prospects and some payroll relief.

There is no doubt in my mind that 2021 was the year for the White Sox to win the World Series. The division was winnable (though I never imagined winning it by 13 games) and there was no clear-cut dominant team in the American League. Instead, the offense fell flat on it’s face for a large portion of the season and the pitching struggled and another first round playoff exit was the end result. So while it feels like it was a reasonably successful season, the finish was basically the same as last season other than the division title. And things will get a lot more difficult in the division next season as the Twins and Indians attempt to rebound and the Tigers and Royals take the next steps in their rebuilds. While the White Sox should still win the division in 2022 I can’t see next year’s playoffs going much better than the 2021 version. And chances are the Wild Card teams will both come from the AL East again, so finishing second in the AL Central won’t be worth anything.

Besides second base and right field, decisions have to be made regarding the backup catcher situation (where I would keep Zack Collins, but that’s just me), the rotation (where Carlos Rodon is a free agent and Dallas Keuchel is an $18 million question mark) and the bullpen (I can’t see Kimbrel’s option being picked up and Ryan Tepera is a free agent). Also, super-sub Leury Garcia is a free agent and he played all over the diamond in 2021 and drove in 54 runs.

There is also very little talent in the minor leagues that is Major League ready, and the system itself ranks next to last in Major League Baseball, just ahead of the Washington Nationals. While Jared Kelley, Norge Vera, Sean Burke and Matthew Thompson all have future potential, none are even close to being Major League-ready and there are few bats that figure to ever make the transition. The fact that Jake Burger is still a highly-ranked prospect at age 26 shows how thin the talent is in the organization. This lack of depth, on both the MLB and MiLB levels, will hurt when injuries strike.

It’s not going to be easy in 2022 but the White Sox should win the AL Central and make the playoffs again, but another first-round exit is likely. I can’t see Tony La Russa managing more than one more season, and I’m anxious to see what direction the franchise goes in 2023, whether they go “outside the family” for a manager or hand the job to bench coach Miguel Cairo for the inevitable rebuild that should begin in 2024, or 2025 at the latest.

In closing, I’ve been a White Sox fan for 30+ years and that’s not going to change. And while it isn’t pleasant knowing the White Sox likely won’t make it to a World Series during the early to mid-2020’s, its still nice to be able to at least have the chance by being a consistent playoff participant. Hopefully next year the team will show some kind of sense of urgency, even though I don’t think it’s going to matter in the long run, I have no doubt 2021 should have been “the year” and it was, without question, the best chance for a World Series win.

Thank you for reading, and forever, GO SOX!

The Jason J. Connor 2020 Chicago White Sox Season Wrap-up and Off-season Preview

Posted on October 12, 2020 by Jason J. Connor

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – JULY 16: Manager Rick Renteria of the Chicago White Sox watches during Summer Workouts at Guaranteed Rate Field on July 16, 2020 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

All I can say is “wow.”

I had planned on doing a season-ending critique of the 2020 Chicago White Sox, much as I had last year, but had planned on waiting until after the World Series. Today’s situation, however, made me move my timeline up a bit.

October 12, 2020: The Chicago White Sox announced they were “parting ways” with manager Rick Renteria and pitching coach Don Cooper, and that the rest of the staff was basically waiting to see if the new manager would retain them. This really came out of left field, as it was pretty much set in stone all season that Renteria and his staff would return until he decided it was time to move on.

Of course, maybe he did. The whole “parting ways” thing really doesn’t give us much insight into who made the decision and what exactly went down. The White Sox are becoming notorious for playing things close to the vest, as Renteria received a contract extension that was not mentioned until months after it had been signed, and no information about length or amount was ever discussed openly.

So first, I’ll touch on the 2020 season and then I’ll move into my top five picks to replace Ricky Renteria, with an “honorable mention” dark horse candidate that most people probably would never even consider.

When I think of the 2020 season, looking back a year or a decade from now, I’ll always think of this team winning in spite of it’s manager. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that before. This team is so talented that the worst tactical manager I’ve seen in 32 years of watching baseball couldn’t derail this team from a playoff birth. With the exception of DH, third base and right field, this team was exceptional.

Third base should fix itself, once Yoan Moncada recovers fully from COVID, assuming that people do fully recover. Since we don’t know what the long-term effects of the virus are, we can’t really say he’ll immediately bounce back to his 2019 form (.315/25/79). While he only missed eight games in 2020, his numbers took a nosedive (.225/6/24, which would project out to .225/19/75 over a 162 game season).

Moncada clearly looked like he was fighting every day to make contact. If he is able to recapture his health, there’s no reason he can’t bounce back.

Designated hitter and right field are a different matter. I was stoked when the White Sox signed Edwin Encarnacion, I figured there was no reason he couldn’t come in and drive in 45 runs and be the best DH the Sox have had since Jim Thome left town. Instead we got a .157 batting average and 19 RBI in 44 games. A total waste.

Right field was even worse. While I was really happy about the Encarnacion signing, I hated the acquisition of Nomar Mazara from the day it was announced. I saw Mazara for what he is, a worse version of Jason Heyward, a guy who looks like he should be a .300/40/120 hitter who, for whatever reason, just isn’t. In a full season, Mazara is a .260/20/70 guy. He has a track record. There is no “untapped potential,” he’s been the guy he’s going to be for the past five years. There’s nothing hidden in his ability.

I will admit I was impressed with his glove, as I was under the impression he was not much of an outfielder but he played reasonably well, displaying a soft glove and a strong arm. But as much as his defense improved, his hitting tanked.

This was the first spot where I started to ask myself “why does Renteria insist on playing this guy so much when there’s a better option on the bench?” Adam Engel hit .295 in limited time, has a far better glove (even taking into account Mazara’s improvement) and showed himself to be at least a borderline option to start in 2021.

I had figured all season the Sox would retain Mazara because he’s eligible for arbitration and would surely not be so foolish as to take his case to a hearing, considering his .228/.295/295 slash line. However, after the Renteria firing, I now am not so sure this team won’t just cut it’s losses and non-tender him. Which just makes the whole acquisition that much more ridiculous because they could have Steele Walker in the system and instead may end up with absolutely nothing. Those are loser moves.

The rest of the team, from Jose Abreu’s incredible MVP-caliber season to Tim Anderson’s chase of a second batting title that ran out of gas to James McCann’s excellent second-showing to Eloy Jimenez continuing to improve to the solid debut seasons of Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal, this team is really solid top to bottom.

That said, Madrigal will improve on his base running and defense and Robert will improve on his strike zone judgment; neither is a finished product.

The pitching was amazing considering the shortcomings. The Sox had only two legit starters and a collection of maybe’s to fill in the other three slots. But they were able to overcome that with a lights-out bullpen that may be the best I’ve ever seen. My hope is that if they can’t sign closer Alex Colome they’ll at least make him a Qualifying Offer, which would give the team an experienced closer again in 2021 and give Colome a nice raise ($18.9 million) for the outstanding season he had. But works needs to be done.

Rick Hahn has been vocal about the faith he has in his young pitchers, mentioning Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, Dane Dunning and Garrett Crochet in particular. I have faith in Cease and Dunning and Crochet, but am not really sure what Kopech will bring to the table, assuming he ever makes it to the table to begin with. He needs to learn that there’s more to life than women and get his head screwed on straight.

So if I were serving as general manager of the White Sox heading into the 2021 season, there are a few obvious areas of need. One, maybe two starting pitchers. A decision to make at closer. A bullpen arm or two to compete with the likes of Jimmy Cordero and Jose Ruiz. A decision about James McCann. And Nomar Mazara. And what to do with the DH spot and whether or not to exercise the option on Edwin Encarnacion.

I’ll begin with the pitching situation. The obvious #1 option on everyone’s board is Trevor Bauer, and no question he would be an incredible addition to the White Sox rotation. However, if his goal is to be a vagabond for the rest of his career, and sign only one-year contracts, I’m going to pass. The White Sox are more than one player away from a World Series-contending team, so signing a guy who is a “final piece” doesn’t make sense if you only get one round into the playoffs and then he leaves.

I’m OK with the names I hear most often after Bauer: Jose Quintana and Marcus Stroman. Yeah, they’re not the biggest names in the world but since we already have Ace 1 and Ace 1-A, we don’t really need to go out looking for a top of the rotation starter. The Sox need back of the rotation production and these guys are both viable options. Neither will be particularly expensive and could be easily jettisoned if one of the younger options (Cease or Kopech or Dunning or even Jonathan Stiever) locks down a spot.

As much as I like James McCann, it’s also time to let him walk. He’s earned an opportunity to be a #1 starting catcher somewhere. Had I been running the team last season there is NO WAY I would have given that massive contract to Yasmani Grandal, I would have given McCann an extension and used what was left over to bolster the pitching staff. Grandal was a luxury this team really didn’t need under the circumstances.

But now that he’s here, we’re stuck with him and hopefully there won’t be a massive decline in his skills as he’ll turn 32 in November.

Since I would also not even consider exercising Encarnacion’s option, my roster would consist of Grandal and Zack Collins at catcher and a platoon of Jose Abreu and Andrew Vaughn at first base and designated hitter. I don’t see the need to add anyone to this mix, though if Collins fails as the backup catcher, bring up Yermin Mercedes or Seby Zavala and give them a fair shake. There’s lots of depth at the position.

As for right field, my plan there would be the same as it was a year ago. Sign Yasiel Puig. He could probably be had for next to nothing and chances are he’ll give you .265/25/80 and steal 15 bases, far better production than the team has gotten at the position in several years. Worst case scenario, just hand the job to Adam Engel.

This team has proven it is talented enough to win in spite of these holes, but there’s no need to have them when upgrades are available and cheap.

Now, to move on to the managerial vacancy and what I see ahead.

First, I’ll give my top five options as I see them and my darkhorse candidate and I’ll explain who I think will actually get the job and why I see it that way.

DARKHORSE CANDIDATE:

CLINT HURDLE

Yes, this will probably be eye-rolled over but hear me out.

You want someone whose been a winner recently? This guy lead the Pittsburgh Pirates to the playoffs three years in a row, a team that hadn’t been there in 21 years. He also has a World Series appearance on his resume with the Colorado Rockies.

I would imagine his age (63) would be the biggest obstacle to his hiring but he’s known as a player’s manager and his resume is excellent. Definitely worth a look.

CANDIDATE #5

JOE McEWING

I think Super Joe is more than qualified to be a Major League manager, and it has shown itself when he’s stepped in for Renteria. The team plays hard for him and he seems to have a plan. He also likes to use the running game, which for some reason Renteria never did, even though this team is loaded with speed and could dominate teams with it, as the old St. Louis Cardinals teams of the 1980s did during their run of success.

But I think Joe may have the same stench of losing on him that Renteria does, not because he’s a loser but because he’s so closely identified with this team during the rebuild, first as third base coach and then as bench coach under Renteria.

CANDIDATE #4

JOEY CORA

A former White Sox player, Joey Cora has done it all in his career except manage at the MLB level. He’s been a minor league manager, MLB coach (including serving as Ozzie Guillen’s bench coach in 2005) and has even served as a broadcaster for MLB Network during the 2013 World Baseball Classic. For whatever reason, he’s never gotten a shot at managing an MLB club and currently serves as third base coach of the Pirates.

Cora should have gotten an MLB managerial job a decade ago, especially coming off serving as bench coach for a World Series team. Not sure what the problem is.

CANDIDATE #3

ALEX CORA

The pluses and minuses here are obvious, as the younger brother of Joey Cora has excelled as a coach and manager, winning two World Series in two years, as a coach with the Houston Astros in 2017 and as manager of the Boston Red Sox in 2018.

Then there’s the sign stealing scandal that caused him to lose his job with the Red Sox heading into 2020. That’s likely to follow him wherever he goes and be a detriment to the team that hires him. Honestly, considering the firing of Ron Roenicke, I think the Red Sox will bring Cora back into the big chair again and move forward with him.

CANDIDATE #2

SANDY ALOMAR, JR.

Much like Joey Cora, I think Sandy Alomar, Jr. should have had a MLB managerial job a decade ago. A former catcher (which is always considered a plus for a manager since they’re basically an on-field manager and handler of a pitching staff), I can’t for the life of me understand why he hasn’t been hired as a manager. It was rumored that the White Sox wanted to hire Alomar to serve as bench coach under Robin Ventura (a job which subsequently fell to Rick Renteria) but Alomar didn’t want Ventura to be feeling the heat if the team played poorly and his replacement was right there.

There’s another angle to the Alomar story, and that’s the health of Indians manager Terry Francona, who missed a large portion of the 2020 mini-season with health problems. If Francona is unable to return, Alomar would certainly be his replacement, I can’t think there would be any second thoughts about making that move.

CANDIDATE #1

A.J. HINCH

The obvious choice. World Series winning manager who is only 46 years old and famously has a degree in psychology from Stanford University. The only downside to Hinch is the cheating scandal with the 2017 Houston Astros and the bad blood that will follow him wherever he goes, much like Alex Cora. But I think it will be worse for Cora than it will be for Hinch, as Cora has been guilty of the charge twice.

Like Alomar, Hinch is a former catcher and one of the best bullpen managers I’ve seen, he’s basically the polar opposite of Ricky Renteria. He’s originally from Iowa and has seven years of managerial experience in spite of his age.

There’s literally no downside here. The guy has a .558 career winning percentage. He’s managed three 100-win teams in his career.

There is also the elephant in the room with Ozzie Guillen, who I think is a better choice than Hinch, because of his connection to the team and the city, the fact that he’s bilingual and the fact that he’s won here before. But Rick Hahn was quick to mention that he would not be considered for the job. At first I thought this was ridiculous, but the more I think about it, the more I understand why they made this decision.

Let’s take a recent example of how managers deal with things today. Late in the 2020 season, Renteria put pitcher Carlos Rodon into an unwinnable situation, pitching him out of the bullpen in an important game when he hadn’t worked out of the ‘pen in five years and was just coming back from injury. The move backfired badly and Ricky was quick to go to the press and say “put that one on me,” meaning the criticism.

Let’s be honest, first, Ozzie would never have made a move that ridiculous. Ozzie was an excellent bullpen manager. Second, if a guy went out and completely blew it, Ozzie wouldn’t think twice about going to the press and saying “Rodon really blew it today.” That was about accountability. That’s not really popular in today’s world.

So maybe if this team was a little older, Ozzie would be perfect. But these are still “kids” in the grand scheme of things and I don’t think they wanted Ozzie throwing them under the bus while they’re still “growing.” And I kind of understand that.

Naturally, there will be other candidates besides these and the manager may end up being someone we haven’t even considered. I’m thankful that Rick Hahn mentioned he wanted someone who had experience because that eliminates guys like A.J. Pierzynski, Jim Thome, Frank Thomas and Paul Konerko, who have no business managing a team that’s on the cusp of being a legit World Series contender for multiple seasons.

As this coming year will mark 30 years that I’ve been a fan of this franchise, I have kind of become cynical when anything happens, expecting the team to make the worst decisions but they seem to be growing out of that, so I’m not going into the offseason automatically expecting the worst. I did expect them to keep Nomar Mazara and platoon him with Adam Engel in 2021 just because they had a year of control left, now I’m not so sure. They finally seem to be at the point where they know they can contend and they’ll do the best they can to win. Today’s decision proves that point beyond dispute.

I now want to address Renteria and Cooper. I was never a fan of Renteria’s hiring, and made that clear publicly on a number of occasions immediately after his hiring as well as in the three years since. I always thought of his hiring the same way I looked at the White Sox hiring of Eddie Stanky 50 years earlier or the White Sox trade for Ron Santo in the early 1970s, it was just a way to “put one over” on the Chicago Cubs.

“We’ll take the guy you couldn’t win with and we’ll win with him.”

Naturally I don’t have any personal dislike for Renteria. He’s a good coach and seems to foster a good vibe in the clubhouse. He seems to be a good teacher. But he’s as poor of an in-game strategist as I’ve ever seen. While most managers are playing chess, he seems to be playing 52-card pick-up. Some coaches are just not cut out to be managers and yet they still get opportunities. Lloyd McClendon is a good example, as he proved to be a poor manager with the Pittsburgh Pirates but somehow has gotten opportunities since, with the Mariners and as a interim manager with the Detroit Tigers.

Ricky will be known from here on out as a guy you hire when you do a rebuild and get rid of when it’s time to compete, since it’s now happened twice. The Cubs were smart enough to get rid of him before they were ready to make the jump. The White Sox held onto him a year too long but at least they wasted little time in fixing that.

Coop is a different situation entirely. For whatever reason, the front office was always enamored of Coop even though I think his abilities were grossly overrated. When you look at the parade of guys who were either stars before he got a hold of them (Mark Buehrle was a 16-game winner the year before Coop was promoted to the MLB staff) or were legit starters that saw their careers point down with Coop (Javier Vasquez and Jeff Samardzija). The only two starters that Coop really developed who amounted to anything were Chris Sale and Jose Quintana, which isn’t much to brag about in 19 years.

We were told how great Coop was almost daily from Steve Stone and Rick Hahn and now he has a chance to go get another job and prove it. I think enough people realized that the 2005 staff was loaded with good veteran pitchers who were successful before they came to the White Sox and his recent failures (Samardzija, Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Cease dealing with regression, Lucas Giolito going to his high school coach for help) have rightfully tarnished whatever reputation Coop had cultivated in the past.

This is a “what have you done for me lately” world we live in and Coop hasn’t done anything of note in a long time. And I’ll stick to what I’ve said throughout the mini season of 2020: This team won IN SPITE of the coaching staff, not with it.

So, in closing, this should be a really fun off-season. In a perfect world, the White Sox will hire A.J. Hinch and sign a couple of back-of-the-rotation starters, resign Alex Colome and bring in a legit right fielder who is more production than “untapped potential.” This team can be dominant for a good five or six years, so it’s time to put the pedal to the metal and go out and win. The Renteria Era is over. The Winning Era has begun.

Peace. And Go Sox. #ChangeTheGame #WhiteSox

EDIT

After writing this blog I heard that the White Sox are entertaining the idea of talking to former White Sox manager Tony LaRussa about the job.

I can’t even begin to express how ridiculous that idea is. LaRussa is 76 years old and hasn’t managed in nine years. Who in their right mind would want to take a young club and saddle them with a manager who was born during World War II?

There is no way LaRussa could interact with the baseball player of the 2020s, there’s a cultural divide there that’s unbridgeable. And there is an example of the White Sox trying that once before, with disastrous results: In 1976 the White Sox rehired former manager Paul Richards, who had managed the team from 1951 to 1954. He was 67 years old (a decade younger than LaRussa) and hadn’t managed since 1961, a layoff of 15 years. He was totally unprepared for the job and the Sox finished 64-97.

LaRussa was a great manager a generation ago. But his time has passed and the very idea of even discussing the job with him makes me cringe. Don’t do something so ridiculous when you have a great, young team that’s ready to contend.

Chicago White Sox: Offseason Update (November 12, 2019)

Posted on November 12, 2019 by Jason J. Connor

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An important week in baseball, the general manager’s meetings in Scottsdale, Arizona began yesterday (Monday) and last through Thursday. While not nearly as important in the big picture as the Winter Meetings, which take place in San Diego, December 8 through 12, the general manager’s meetings help set the foundation for the Winter Meetings.

The White Sox are in the news quite a bit as Bob Nightengale of USA Today has tried to again fan the flames of importance around the Chicago White Sox, as he did last offseason by announcing, at one point, that the White Sox were not only the front runners for shortstop Manny Machado, but that they were also the favorites to sign outfielder Bryce Harper!

Those two combined for $630 million over the length of their respective deals, which last 10 years (Machado) and 13 years (Harper), a bit above the White Sox pay scale.

Now Bob is pushing the concept of the White Sox being all in on every available free agent on the market this offseason, though he was quick to pull back on the top player available, pitcher Gerrit Cole. But continued to push the assertion that third baseman Anthony Rendon is a viable possibility, and maybe even to go so far as to say a legit target.

I don’t want any misunderstandings here, I have nothing negative to say about Rendon whatsoever, he is a legit MVP candidate (.319/.412/.598 with 34 home runs and an MLB-leading 126 RBI in 2019 as well as winning a Silver Slugger and making the All Star team) but he isn’t a fit with this White Sox team. I HATE this idea (which is bandied about regularly on the Sox Talk Podcast) that you just sign the best available players you can get and worry about where to play them later. That concept is totally insane in my opinion.

You build a team and fill in your needs. If you don’t need a third baseman, you don’t sign a third baseman. You find the best player available, either by free agency or trade, at the position you have a need. So as great as Rendon is, you just say “I don’t need a third baseman” and you move on to where you do have a need. It’s simple.

The Sox have three major needs: Starting pitching, right field and designated hitter.

In my perfect world, the names you fill in are Zack Wheeler, Yasiel Puig and Edwin Encarnacion. You’re getting a good strikeout pitcher with outstanding control (195 K’s versus 50 walks in 2019) who will be a perfect fit in the ballpark and the rotation, a right fielder who you can pretty much pencil in for 20+ home runs (maybe 30 playing 81 games a year at Sox Park) and 15 steals per season and a DH who has hit 32+ home runs 8 years in a row.

Yes, each has their negatives, Wheeler has had Tommy John Surgery twice (but worked 195 innings last year and has less than 900 innings on his arm), Puig can be an attitude problem (which I think would be remedied by the strong Cuban culture within the organization) and Encarnacion will turn 37 in January, so he’s not a long term solution, but I think he can help a guy like Jose Abreu adjust to being an everyday DH and that’s a win/win situation.

As starting pitching goes, I just don’t see the White Sox going $250 million (or more) for Gerrit Cole or $150 million (or more) for Stephen Strasburg. Not only is that not something they have done in the past, but I don’t see the Sox spending that kind of money (more on that later). The next group of starters includes Madison Bumgarner, Dallas Keuchel and Wheeler, guys who you could get for under $100 million. While I am a big fan of Bumgarner, I see him staying in the National League and the 1,800+ innings on his arm is a concern. Keuchel is a guy who probably slots as a #4 within the White Sox rotation and I don’t see what’s to be accomplished paying $60 million over three years for a number four who pitches to contact in a hitter’s park and who has never been much of a strikeout guy.

Right field is a conundrum because the Sox have been linked since the offseason began to Nicholas Castellanos. While I am a big fan of his bat (.289/.337/.525 with 27 home runs and 58 doubles in 2019) his defense is well below-average and he’s only been slotted at DH 40 times in 839 career games. So you’re giving up something with him either way, you’re guaranteeing yourself two below-average gloves in the outfield (along with left fielder Eloy Jimenez) or you are giving yourself the unknown of what he can produce at DH.

The DH position is a bit of a monkey in it’s own right, due to the lack of productive ones (Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak and Mark Trumbo look to be the only full-time DH options outside of Encarnacion. Morales hit .194 with two home runs in 53 games, Smoak hit .208 with 22 home runs and Trumbo hit .172 with no home runs in 31 plate appearances.

I’ll pass on all three. And that leaves Encarnacion and guys like Avi Garcia.

There is also the possibility of rotating the DH (which has been about as productive as the past few full time DH options the White Sox have signed) and letting Zack Collins, Jose Abreu and the right fielder (Castellanos or Kole Calhoun or Corey Dickerson) to split time at the position. Not something I am a big fan of, but I like to have a set lineup every day.

As I have been writing this and doing my research prior to, one guy who keeps catching my attention is the aforementioned Corey Dickerson. While he is a left fielder, not a right fielder which the Sox need (and he has only six games of experience in his career in right field) I realized he has 128 games of experience at DH, mostly during his two-year stint with the Tampa Bay Rays. In addition to his left-handed bat, he also carries a .286 career batting average. He’ll turn 31 in May and maybe could be a good option as an everyday DH.

I hate feeling negative about the team, especially this offseason because the position player that is considered the #1 free agent plays a position they don’t need and if they don’t pursue him fans will take that negatively and I don’t think that’s fair. I wasn’t big on last year’s pursuit of Manny Machado (and was active about pushing that fact in my blog) because he didn’t fill a need; I knew they planned to play him at third base but that wasn’t his preferred position. I don’t want to see the Sox spend money just for the sake of saying “look, we signed Anthony Rendon, now we have to change our infield around to fit him in because we signed a guy at a position we didn’t need to fill, let’s hope Moncada is OK with another position switch.”

That doesn’t work. Spend the money, but spend it responsibly. Spend it on need. But don’t sign the cheapest player available and hope he’s a bounce-back candidate. Don’t sign an outfielder because he had a good season six years ago. Don’t sign a pitcher because he won a Cy Young award five years ago and he’s been awful since then. That doesn’t work.

I am 100% convinced this team can, with the right additions, contend for a Wild Card spot in 2020 and then for a division title in 2021. But there are holes that need to be filled and they need to be filled properly, with players who play the position and have been successful, recently. Winning teams have winning players. Let’s go out and find some.

Thank you for reading. Peace.

The Chicago White Sox 2019-20 Offseason: Preferences vs. Probabilities

Posted on October 20, 2019 by Jason J. Connor

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It’s that time of year again, as the World Series is scheduled to begin next week and we can start looking ahead to the offseason happenings. Of course, as a Chicago White Sox fan, I’m usually thinking about the offseason possibilities long before the actual season ends, as the playoffs are usually 15+ games out of reach by the end of August.

This little exercise is going to be a look at what I would like to see the White Sox accomplish this offseason (and what I’m likely to do with my roster on MLB The Show) versus what I think the White Sox will actually do; and I’m going to keep it realistic, as much as possible, basing my forecast on what I have heard in the media and the team itself.

So, let’s begin.

STARTING PITCHING

Preference: Naturally, my preference here would be signing Gerrit Cole of the Houston Astros to a long-term deal with every cent of the Manny Machado money from last offseason. However, I know that’s a pipe dream because of how this team (general manager Rick Hahn, in particular) likes to contradict himself, as one minute the team “has a lot of flexibility” in terms of “cash to spend,” while at the same time having to be “careful” what they spend.

So, my preference for starting pitching would be to sign New York Mets RHP Zack Wheeler. This is one of those moves that I consider a no-brainer. He won’t turn 30 until May, which makes him younger than Madison Bumgarner and Dallas Keuchel and he has FAR less wear and tear on his arm (749 career Major League innings for Wheeler as opposed to 1,302 for Keuchel and 1,846 for Bumgarner) than the other possibilities most linked to the White Sox. In addition, his 11 wins in 2019 were more than either Bumgarner or Keuchel.

For depth, I would not be opposed to resigning Ivan Nova, who lead the American League in starts in 2019 (34) and was durable and reasonably successful given the circumstances. I definitely don’t want to see him leading the staff, but as a depth piece instead.

Probability: While I don’t see the team springing big money for Wheeler, I don’t see them springing big money for Bumgarner or Keuchel either. The name I hear most regularly is Cole Hamels, most recently of the Chicago Cubs, as the big acquisition for the rotation. This makes no sense to me whatsoever, as the Sox would be bringing in a soon-to-be 36-year old pitcher with almost 2,700 innings on his arm, in spite of not reaching 200 innings in a season since 2016. If this move does happen, it reeks of “putting one over on the Cubs.”

For depth I do not see them resigning Nova, who will be able to score a bigger payday with one of the other rebuilding franchises (the Marlins, Orioles, Royals or Tigers) so I picture the White Sox big depth piece being a non-tendered-and-resigned Dylan Covey. I have also wondered if Kenny Williams would pitch the idea of being on a contender to Felix Hernandez.

RELIEF PITCHING

Preference: I don’t make a big deal over relief pitching but I would like to see Jimmy Cordero back, due to his outstanding 2.75 ERA over 36 innings in 2019. Most relievers are interchangeable but I think a back end of Alex Colome closing with Aaron Bummer and a rejuvenated Kelvin Herrera setting him up, that’s pretty solid and I’ll take it.

Probability: As the White Sox don’t really make a big deal over middle relief and the set-up and closer roles are defined and filled, most anything can happen here. Cordero and Evan Marshall could come back just as easily as they could be replaced. The name I hear mentioned in the press is Dellin Betances, but that doesn’t make sense in a number of ways, not the least of which is his health (2/3 of an inning of work in 2019) as well as the fact that he really wouldn’t have a traditional role, since the back end of the bullpen is set.

I also think he is a little more expensive than the Sox tend to spend on middle relief.

CATCHING

Preference: This is easy for me. Sign James McCann long-term since he can be a free agent following the 2020 season, because even if his offensive numbers regress, and they will, he was a boon to the pitching staff. Zack Collins can serve as the backup and catch two or three times a week. Keep Yermin Mercedes at AAA Charlotte for a time when needed, or bring him up to fill the 26^th man spot on the roster, as he certainly seems to be ready for The Show (.317/23 home runs/80 RBI in 2019). No big acquisitions are needed behind the plate.

Probability: The name I keep hearing here is Yasmani Grandal. In addition to the fact that he’ll be 31 when the season starts and hit .246 last year (while establishing career-highs in home runs, RBI and walks, to be fair), he turned down a multi-year contract offer from the White Sox last year in order to take a one-year deal with the Brewers. It doesn’t make much sense to offer more money this time around when he is a year older, with more wear and tear.

… and I see no circumstances whatsoever that Welington Castillo comes back in 2020.

INFIELD

Preference: This is easy. Resign Jose Abreu to a two year deal with a club option for a third and non-tender Yolmer Sanchez. Let Danny Mendick hold down second base until Nick Madrigal is ready and you’re set. Abreu at first, Madrigal at second, Tim Anderson at short and Yoan Moncada at third, with Mendick covering second, short and third and Zack Collins handling first when needed. This should produce the easiest decisions on the roster.

Probability: I’m worried that Sanchez will be tendered at over $6 million to keep a seat warm for Madrigal, then kept on as a utility player in spite of the fact that his bat is worthless and this isn’t the National League where you see a lot of defensive replacements late in games. At one time, I was worried that the Sox would fall over themselves offering Washington Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon a contract, but after he turned down a seven year, $215 million deal from the Nats, I’m not worried about that at all. The White Sox lucked out last year by not spending $250 million for Manny Machado, they won’t repeat the mistake this year and make a garish contract offer to the top offensive player available.

OUTFIELD

Preference: The White Sox are set in LF (Eloy Jimenez) and CF (Luis Robert) but RF is a bottomless pit. In my world, the Sox would sign Yasiel Puig to a four-year deal and park his 20+ home runs and 15+ stolen bases beside Jimenez and Robert in what could be described as a “dream outfield.” Hang onto Adam Engel as a pinch hitter and pinch runner and rare defensive replacement when needed, as well as Leury Garcia, who was solid in 2019.

Probability: This is where I get annoyed, as Kole Calhoun is apparently the overwhelming favorite due to the fact that he hits left-handed and he hit 33 home runs in 2019. It should be noted that (a) Calhoun is almost five years older than Puig, and (b) Calhoun’s 33 home runs in 2019 are not really comparable to his home runs totals in 2018 and 2017 (19) or 2016 (18). Calhoun clearly benefited from the juiced ball in 2019 and if that is remedied in 2020, those home run totals will drop. And that ugly .232 batting average and .325 OBP doesn’t help.

I do hear Corey Dickerson mentioned but I have a feeling the Sox are absolutely set on Kole Calhoun, but I’m not sure he’s going to get more than a one-year contract. I also hear Joc Pederson mentioned a lot but it would require a trade to get him and I’m not sure what the White Sox have of value that the Los Angeles Dodgers would want, maybe Mercedes and a pitcher but it would have to be one of the lower level/lower production pitchers.

DESIGNATED HITTER

Preference: J.D. Martinez. No question. Now, this is assuming he opts out of his current deal with the Detroit Tigers, of course. Offer him a four year deal for $100 million with an opt-out after two years, he’ll blow town after two years and the club would only be on the hook for $50 million, or $7 million more than they spent on Melky Cabrera in 2015. If Martinez is unavailable or too pricey, skip DH and rotate it between Abreu and Collins.

Probability: This is one area where I can see the Sox making the move and spending the money and it paying off. It’s a win/win for everybody. Martinez gets more money than he would have had he stayed with the Red Sox (and there’s has to be a reason to opt out and taking a pay cut would be out of the question), the White Sox shore up the offense and should get 40+ home runs from Martinez the next couple of seasons and don’t have to spend an ungodly amount of money to do so. It all makes too much sense not to do it.

I do worry that, if this option doesn’t work out, they’re going to try going over the top to sign Grandal and work him between catcher, first base and DH, and I don’t like anything about that idea. I’d rather let Collins develop into whatever he is going to be going forward.

So, all in all, it should be a fun offseason regardless of the direction the White Sox go. There is a good talent base on this team and it only needs to be filled in, but with the right pieces. The Sox don’t need a starting catcher, or a third baseman. The needs are obvious, a right fielder, a starting pitcher and a DH, and Puig, Wheeler and Martinez are the guys I want to see on the roster when we get to Spring Training next February. Will it happen? Most likely not. And not a whole lot of the “Machado Money” will be spent this offseason, regardless.

I’ll blog again after the Winter Meetings and hopefully we’ll have a better understanding of where we stand, assuming free agency moves at a better pace than it did last year.

Peace.

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